Bat\u0131 Teksas Orta Kalite (WTI) ham petrol, art arda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 86,60 dolar civar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir mutabakat oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki haberlerin ard\u0131ndan arz endi\u015felerinin yumu\u015famas\u0131yla fiyatlar geriledi; bu durum H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyat\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlama olmaks\u0131z\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine dair beklentileri art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6neriye g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde su yolundaki deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 temizlemesi gerekecek. Ancak CNN\u2019in, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u015fartlar\u0131 resmen onaylamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fc; Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak \u201chen\u00fcz orada olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi ve ABD\u2019nin Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 yine de geriletebilece\u011fini yineledi.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ING, bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede rahatlama sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini, ancak tam normalle\u015fmenin belirsiz oldu\u011funu belirtti; zira sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana yukar\u0131 ak\u0131m \u00fcretim geriledi ve \u00fcreticiler, keskin depolama k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131yla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi k\u0131smak zorunda kald\u0131. Talep-arz dengesinde ise EIA, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 3,3 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu bildirdi; ancak bu azal\u0131\u015f Reuters anketinde beklenen 4,1 milyon varilin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tamamen olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesine kilitlendi\u011fini ve bunun WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 86 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131z sevkiyat ihtimali, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme kayda de\u011fer potansiyel arz ekliyor. Bu da k\u0131sa vadede net bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim yarat\u0131yor; anla\u015fma olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcrece bunun devam etmesini beklemek gerekir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, anla\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz nihai olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131k onay\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek belirsizlik derecesini hesaba katmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde fiyatlar\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde geri s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fi ikili bir olay riski yarat\u0131yor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) bu gerilimi yans\u0131tarak 38 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; straddle gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanan opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in mant\u0131kl\u0131 se\u00e7enekler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu deseni daha \u00f6nce, \u00f6rne\u011fin 2015\u2019te \u0130ran\u2019la y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen JCPOA m\u00fczakereleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Nihai anla\u015fmaya giden aylarda piyasa, \u0130ran varillerinin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 kademeli olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, yeni anla\u015fman\u0131n resmen teyit edilmesi halinde, \u00f6rne\u011fin put al\u0131m\u0131 yoluyla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlara g\u00f6re pozisyonlanma stratejisini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftaki 3,3 milyon varillik beklentinin alt\u0131ndaki stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi ihtiyatl\u0131 duru\u015fumuzu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu rakam, May\u0131s sonu i\u00e7in be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama \u00e7ekili\u015fin alt\u0131nda; bu da yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonunun ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n stoklar\u0131 beklendi\u011fi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde eritmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00c7in\u2019in son imalat PMI verisinin 49,8 ile beklentilerin hafif alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla birlikte k\u00fcresel talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc haberlere ra\u011fmen, yap\u0131sal unsurlar nedeniyle fiyat taban\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Yukar\u0131 ak\u0131m \u00fcretim bir gecede yeniden devreye al\u0131namaz; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte ger\u00e7ek bir arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131 k\u0131lm\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, daha ileri vadeli kontratlarda 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, altta yatan bu deste\u011fi kabul ederken prim toplamak i\u00e7in temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WTI\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisi: fiyat 86,60 dolara indi. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den kesintisiz sevkiyat beklentisi arz endi\u015fesini azalt\u0131yor; ancak Trump onay\u0131 belirsiz, stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47663"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47663\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}