AUD\/USD, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fuyla a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilerken, pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 0,7160 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerdeki sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonun ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Daha yumu\u015fak gelen Nisan enflasyonu, zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 ve so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nceki RBA s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye yans\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucuna varmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; bu da Haziran ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n agresif \u015fekilde yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi ivmeye dair daha net bir okuma i\u00e7in gelecek haftaki imalat PMI anketine, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi verilerine ve GSYH rakamlar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. <\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f etkenlerde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131; petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131na dair temkinli iyimserlik i\u00e7eren haberlerle gerilemesi, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 kanal\u0131yla bir miktar destek sundu. \u00d6neri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131z sevkiyata izin veriyor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde t\u00fcm deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 temizlemeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bununla birlikte, anla\u015fman\u0131n kesinle\u015fip kesinle\u015fmeyece\u011fine dair temkinli duru\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. MUFG Bank, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; zira yeniden artan kesinti risklerinin daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon, daha s\u0131k\u0131 ABD tahvil getirileri ve daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir Fed duru\u015funu beraberinde getirebilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki ana zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, RBA\u2019ya ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 art\u0131k Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %15 olarak ima ediyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeydi. Bu tablo, faiz farklar\u0131 \u00fczerinden uzun AUD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomideki yava\u015flaman\u0131n teyidi i\u00e7in g\u00f6zler art\u0131k gelecek haftaki GSYH verilerinde. Avustralya \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (ABS) yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergesi enflasyonun %3,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini ortaya koydu; bu da 2024\u2019\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen durgun b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi and\u0131ran kal\u0131c\u0131 bir so\u011fuma e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, beklenenden zay\u0131f gelebilecek herhangi bir verinin paritede 0,7000 seviyesine do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, parite i\u00e7in olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bir taban i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde belirgin bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir anla\u015fma, muhtemelen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirir ve risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek Avustralya dolar\u0131na ge\u00e7ici bir destek verir. Ancak anla\u015fma hen\u00fcz nihai olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ikili (binary) jeopolitik risk ortam\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirgin bir fiyat hareketinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite 9,5 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda; bu da piyasan\u0131n bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ate\u015fkesin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi senaryosunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak net bir se\u00e7enek sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fman\u0131n sa\u011flanamamas\u0131, enerji maliyetlerinde sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir; bu da tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131 sarsan bir senaryodur. B\u00f6yle bir \u015fok, Fed\u2019in hedefleriyle de \u00e7at\u0131\u015f\u0131r; zira ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu son d\u00f6nemde inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %2,8\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Bu t\u00fcr bir \u015fokun, daha \u015fahin bir Fed tepkisini zorunlu k\u0131lmas\u0131, ABD tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 itmesi ve USD\u2019yi desteklemesi muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD 0,7160\u2019ta tutunuyor; ancak RBA\u2019da Haziran faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %70\u2019ten %15\u2019e inince AUD zay\u0131flad\u0131. GSYH\/PMI bekleniyor. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi belirsiz; volatilite 9,5, put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47661"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47661\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}