EUR\/GBP, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fcklemesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,8660 civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD\u2019li yetkililer, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n resmi m\u00fczakerelere zaman tan\u0131mak amac\u0131yla ate\u015fkesi 60 g\u00fcn uzatacak bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 \u00fczerinde anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n bunu hen\u00fcz onaylamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Seans\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, \u00f6nc\u00fc Almanya enflasyon verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (ECB) ili\u015fkin faiz beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. CNBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re piyasalar, 11 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevduat faizini 2,25\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacak 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %91 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; ayr\u0131ca Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir art\u0131\u015f daha ihtimali %50 seviyesinde. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise Sterlin, zay\u0131flayan veriler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki olas\u0131 kesintilerin s\u00fcrmesi halinde enerji maliyetlerinin artabilece\u011fi endi\u015feleriyle bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu durum t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyebilir ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilir. Pantheon Macroeconomics, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2026 i\u00e7in bir hafta \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha az fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, gilt getirilerinin ise 2023 sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana en sert haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti\u011fini bildirdi; kurum bu hareketi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131na, Sir Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin bahis piyasas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesine ve Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n mevcut mali kurallara ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k taahh\u00fcd\u00fcne ba\u011flad\u0131. BoE\u2019den konu\u015fmas\u0131 beklenen isimler aras\u0131nda Andrew Bailey, Catherine Mann ve Megan Greene bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
ECB ile BoE aras\u0131nda belirginle\u015fen politika fark\u0131, Euro\u2019yu Sterlin\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 tercih etmemiz gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/GBP\u2019nin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesi i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Almanya enflasyon verileri ilk \u00f6nemli kataliz\u00f6r olacak. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Avrupa\u2019da faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlanan bir merkez bankas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de hareket alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir merkez bankas\u0131 oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelinde s\u00fcregelen fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tarak ECB\u2019den 11 Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda. Almanya enflasyonunun yak\u0131n zamanda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda inat\u00e7\u0131 bir \u015fekilde %2,7 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyelerinin kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f\u0131 desteklemesi de Euro i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer taraftan Sterlin, enerji maliyeti endi\u015feleri ve yava\u015flayan ekonomiden kaynaklanan ters r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde %0,5 daralmas\u0131, t\u00fcketicilerin harcamalar\u0131 k\u0131smaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablonun BoE\u2019nin elini ba\u011flamas\u0131 ve bankan\u0131n ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funa ayak uydurmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Beklenen hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in vadesi Haziran sonu veya Temmuz olan EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, d\u00f6viz paritesinde y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken, olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6dedi\u011fimiz primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. ABD\u2013\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, bu tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fini ak\u0131lda tutmal\u0131y\u0131z; ge\u00e7mi\u015f Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerinin tek bir haftada %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hafta ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde BoE yetkililerinden gelebilecek beklenmedik derecede \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, EUR\/GBP\u2019de ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme yaratabilir. B\u00f6yle bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in daha iyi bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiririz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz geli\u015fme: EUR\/GBP 0,8660\u2019a inerken ABD\u2013\u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasa ECB\u2019den 11 Haziran\u2019da %91 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor; BoE zay\u0131f veri ve enerji riskiyle s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Euro \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47659\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}