{"id":47651,"date":"2026-05-29T07:20:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T07:20:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dolar-hurmuz-anlasmasi-umutlarinin-guvenli-liman-talebini-azaltmasiyla-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T07:20:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T07:20:08","slug":"dolar-hurmuz-anlasmasi-umutlarinin-guvenli-liman-talebini-azaltmasiyla-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/analysis\/dolar-hurmuz-anlasmasi-umutlarinin-guvenli-liman-talebini-azaltmasiyla-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Anla\u015fmas\u0131 Umutlar\u0131n\u0131n G\u00fcvenli Liman Talebini Azaltmas\u0131yla Geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/06\/USD8-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43236\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kanlar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ABD Dolar Endeksi (USDX \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) <strong>98.988<\/strong> seviyesinde; <strong>0.050<\/strong> puan, yani <strong>%0,05<\/strong> y\u00fckseldi. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirve <strong>99.033<\/strong> g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Endeks, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc <strong>%0,2<\/strong> geriledikten sonra <strong>99.045<\/strong> civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dolar, haftay\u0131 <strong>%0,3<\/strong> kay\u0131pla kapatmaya gidiyor; b\u00f6ylece <strong>iki haftal\u0131k<\/strong> y\u00fckseli\u015f serisi bozulabilir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00d6nerilen ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131, ate\u015fkesi <strong>60 g\u00fcn<\/strong> uzatabilir ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fe y\u00f6nelik ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD dolar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc sakin seyretti. Ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n jeopolitik risk primi (sava\u015f\/gerilim gibi riskler i\u00e7in talep edilen ek getiri) beklentisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle dolar haftal\u0131k bazda gerilemeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. USDX <strong>05\/29 08:55:02 GMT+3<\/strong> itibar\u0131yla <strong>98.988<\/strong> seviyesinde; <strong>0.050<\/strong> puan, yani <strong>%0,05<\/strong> art\u0131da. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i en y\u00fcksek seviye <strong>99.033<\/strong>, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye <strong>98.885<\/strong> olurken; a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f <strong>98.930<\/strong>, kapan\u0131\u015f <strong>98.938<\/strong> olarak kaydedildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dolar endeksi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc <strong>%0,2<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten sonra <strong>99.045<\/strong> \u00e7evresinde dar bantta hareket etti. Endeksin haftay\u0131 <strong>%0,3<\/strong> kay\u0131pla kapatmas\u0131, <strong>iki haftal\u0131k<\/strong> y\u00fckseli\u015fi sonland\u0131rabilir. ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesi uzatmaya ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131ktaki k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 hafifletmeye y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak dolara talebi azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US and Iran reached an agreement to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, though US President Trump has yet to approve it <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UhuD2YNKYk\">https:\/\/t.co\/UhuD2YNKYk<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AAMHLYzSyi\">pic.twitter.com\/AAMHLYzSyi<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2060176459403342293?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 29, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Anla\u015fma i\u00e7in Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n onay\u0131 gerekiyor. Onaylan\u0131rsa ate\u015fkes <strong>60 g\u00fcn<\/strong> daha uzayacak; m\u00fczakereciler \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 (uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme ve n\u00fckleer kapasiteye ili\u015fkin ba\u015fl\u0131klar) gibi daha zor konular\u0131 ele al\u0131rken, bo\u011fazdaki ge\u00e7i\u015fler devam edebilecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gerilimin Azalmas\u0131 Dolar\u0131 Bask\u0131l\u0131yor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dolar\u0131n son zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde petrol arz\u0131nda aksama, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k riski ve enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015fesi nedeniyle dolara y\u00f6nelmi\u015fti. Ate\u015fkesin uzamas\u0131 bu ihtiyac\u0131 azaltabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc <strong>%1<\/strong>\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en sert haftal\u0131k gerilemeye gidiyor. Brent <strong>1,04 dolar<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na <strong>92,67 dolar<\/strong>a, WTI ise <strong>1,26 dolar<\/strong> kay\u0131pla <strong>87,64 dolar<\/strong>a indi. Haftal\u0131k bazda Brent <strong>%10,5<\/strong>, WTI <strong>%9,2<\/strong> ekside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Norway is putting pressure on the EU to remove a moratorium on new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic where almost two thirds of its petroleum resources lie <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LLiafkoWDa\">https:\/\/t.co\/LLiafkoWDa<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2060230822758580302?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 29, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Petroldeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, dolar\u0131n desteklerinden birini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dair endi\u015feleri yumu\u015fat\u0131r ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 risk hassas para birimlerine (k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 para birimleri) y\u00f6neltebilir. Euro <strong>1,1642 dolar<\/strong> civar\u0131nda yatay, sterlin <strong>1,3435 dolar<\/strong> yak\u0131n\u0131nda, Avustralya dolar\u0131 ise <strong>0,7165 dolar<\/strong> ile hafif art\u0131da.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha erken ve daha sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (politika faizinin y\u00fckselmesi) g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi sinyalinin ard\u0131ndan <strong>%0,4<\/strong> y\u00fckselerek <strong>0,5960 dolar<\/strong>a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve <strong>iki haftay\u0131<\/strong> a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Riski Dolar\u0131n D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dolar bar\u0131\u015f beklentisiyle zay\u0131flasa da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD\u2019de enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek. ABD enflasyonu Nisan\u2019da <strong>\u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n<\/strong> en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Bu art\u0131\u015fta \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki enerji fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin gecikmeli etkisi belirleyici oldu. Bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri uzun s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed Chair Warsh&#39;s preferred inflation measure is cooling. A big pinch of salt is advised <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5XLiyeXScV\">https:\/\/t.co\/5XLiyeXScV<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5XLiyeXScV\">https:\/\/t.co\/5XLiyeXScV<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2060207042644582641?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 29, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>PCE fiyat endeksi (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda <strong>%3,8<\/strong> artt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) <strong>%3,3<\/strong> y\u00fckseldi. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda <strong>%5,5<\/strong> artt\u0131; bu, Mart\u2019taki <strong>%20,9<\/strong> s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Ki\u015fisel harcamalar <strong>%0,5<\/strong> artsa da ki\u015fisel gelir de\u011fi\u015fmedi; tasarruf oran\u0131 <strong>%2,6<\/strong>\u2019ya gerileyerek <strong>Haziran 2022<\/strong>\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dolara taban olu\u015fturuyor. Enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa Fed, gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimi veya daha destekleyici para politikas\u0131) mesafeli durabilir. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u00fcrerse faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 endi\u015fesi azalabilir; ancak piyasan\u0131n belirgin bir \u201crahatlama\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131 i\u00e7in enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda tek haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Teknik Analiz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD Dolar Endeksi, <strong>99.00<\/strong> seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda yatay toparlanma (konsolidasyon \u2013 fiyat\u0131n dar bir bantta dengelenmesi) s\u00fcrecini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. May\u0131s diplerinden gelen tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finin (rebound \u2013 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 toparlanma) ard\u0131ndan momentum (fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>G\u00fcncel Fiyat:<\/strong> 98.99<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA5:<\/strong> 99.00 (5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama \u2013 k\u0131sa vadeli ortalama fiyat)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA10:<\/strong> 99.11 (10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA20:<\/strong> 98.68 (20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/06\/image-38-1024x474.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51318\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fiyat, k\u0131sa vadeli hareketli ortalamalar aras\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu durum piyasada net bir y\u00f6n belirleyici etken (kataliz\u00f6r) olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. MA20 y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde ve fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda; bu da <strong>97.50\u201398.00<\/strong> b\u00f6lgesinden gelen daha geni\u015f toparlanman\u0131n, son duraksamaya ra\u011fmen s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Piyasalar, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ile Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde gev\u015femeye gidebilece\u011fi beklentisini birlikte fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle dolar, kuvvetli bir trend yerine dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131da ge\u00e7ilmesi zor seviye) <strong>99.20\u201399.40<\/strong> band\u0131nda. Sonras\u0131nda Mart zirvesi olan <strong>100.50<\/strong> \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma seviyesi) <strong>98.70<\/strong>, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek ise <strong>97.90\u201398.00<\/strong> b\u00f6lgesinde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>K\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, endeks MA20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a n\u00f6trden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fcye yak\u0131n. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi i\u00e7in <strong>99.40<\/strong> \u00fczerinin net \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Temkinli Tahmin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USDX, <strong>98.684<\/strong> ile <strong>99.106<\/strong> aras\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece dar bantta hareket edebilir. <strong>99.106<\/strong> \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n gecikmesi veya ABD enflasyonunun Fed\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fta (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) b\u0131rakmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde <strong>100.481<\/strong> hedefini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>98.684<\/strong> alt\u0131 ise daha belirgin dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder ve <strong>97.910<\/strong> seviyesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. Bu senaryoda \u00fc\u00e7 unsurun birlikte gelmesi gerekir: Trump\u2019\u0131n <strong>60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck<\/strong> uzatmay\u0131 onaylamas\u0131, petrol\u00fcn haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131k\u00e7a Fed faiz beklentilerinin gev\u015femesi.<\/p>\n\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman primi eriyor: USDX 98,99\u2019da; haftay\u0131 %0,3 ekside kapatabilir. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve sert petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bask\u0131larken, y\u00fcksek enflasyon Fed deste\u011fi sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47650,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47651"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47651\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}