WTI, Asya i\u015flemlerinde cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 87,20 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Fiyatlar, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 durdurma) 60 g\u00fcn uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberlerinin ard\u0131ndan geriledi. Bu ad\u0131m, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan gemi ge\u00e7i\u015finin k\u0131s\u0131tlama olmadan yap\u0131labilmesine kap\u0131 aralayabilir. \u00d6neriye g\u00f6re \u0130ran, 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde su yolundaki may\u0131nlar\u0131 temizleyecek; ancak \u015fartlar hen\u00fcz resmen onaylanmad\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7 belirsiz.<\/p>\n
ABD g\u00f6stergesi WTI, bu ay \u015fu ana kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 geriledi. Piyasada ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair beklentiler ham petrol \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi: ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji verilerini yay\u0131mlayan kurum) verileri, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 3,3 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. B\u00f6ylece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisi alt\u0131nc\u0131 haftaya uzad\u0131; ancak azal\u0131\u015f, Reuters anketindeki 4,1 milyon varillik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. WTI (West Texas Intermediate: ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilen, k\u00fck\u00fcrt oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve hafif ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) ABD\u2019nin referans ham petrol\u00fcd\u00fcr ve Cushing (Oklahoma\u2019daki depolama ve teslimat merkezi) \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r. Di\u011fer t\u00fcrlerde oldu\u011fu gibi fiyat\u0131; arz-talep dengesi, ABD dolar\u0131, OPEC\u2019in (Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc) \u00fcretim politikas\u0131 ve haftal\u0131k API (Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc: sekt\u00f6r kurulu\u015fu) ile EIA stok raporlar\u0131ndan etkilenir; bu iki rapor \u00e7o\u011fu zaman benzer sonu\u00e7 verir.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik iyimserlikle s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. B\u00f6yle bir anla\u015fma, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fi g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alabilir. WTI\u2019\u0131n May\u0131s 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 gerilemesi, piyasalar\u0131n hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmemi\u015f bir gerilimin azalmas\u0131 senaryosunu fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in temel risk, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 halinde sert bir ters hareket ya\u015fanmas\u0131; olas\u0131 bir olumsuz sinyal, fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik, \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) i\u00e7in i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 \u00fcretmi\u015ftir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u015eubat 2022\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 60 g\u00fcnde fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlan\u0131r) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 fiyatlardan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; daha geni\u015f bantta harekete oynar).<\/p>\n
Bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, son EIA raporunda stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn 3,3 milyon varilde kalmas\u0131 ve 4,1 milyon varillik beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 oldu. Stoklar alt\u0131 haftad\u0131r d\u00fc\u015fse de azal\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131, talebin beklenenden daha zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu veri k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini destekliyor; ancak yaz d\u00f6neminde mevsimsel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 genelde piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Daha \u201cince ayarl\u0131\u201d bir i\u015flem alan\u0131, WTI-Brent fark\u0131 (iki petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat fark\u0131) olabilir; bu fark \u015fu s\u0131ralar yakla\u015f\u0131k -5,50 dolar seviyesinde. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden risksiz \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck bir anla\u015fma, Brent fiyat\u0131na yak\u0131n ham petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla etkileyebilir; bu da fark\u0131n daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Benzer bir tablo 2011\u2019de Arap Bahar\u0131 d\u00f6neminde, Orta Do\u011fu ve Afrika arz\u0131ndaki aksamalarla fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n tarihi seviyelere geni\u015flemesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 zaten fiyatlara girmi\u015fken, olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak gerekebilir. Bunun i\u00e7in temmuz ve a\u011fustos vadeli, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131; ucuz ama y\u00fckseli\u015fte kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskten yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir. OVX (CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 35 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n belirsizli\u011fi h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon d\u00fc\u015ferse fiyatlar nereye gider? WTI 87,20 dolarda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde gerilerken ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes uzatma beklentisi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskini azalt\u0131yor. Stoklar 3,3 milyon indi; oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47639\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}