Tokyo\u2019nun taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 T\u00dcFE\u2019si (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,3 artt\u0131. Bu, beklentiden daha yumu\u015fak bir veri oldu. Piyasa beklentisi %1,5\u2019ti; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme beklentinin 0,2 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu sonu\u00e7, ba\u015fkentte bu \u201c\u00e7ekirdek\u201d \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmde (oynak taze g\u0131da kalemi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6sterge, Japonya\u2019da temel enflasyon e\u011filimlerini izlemek i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan takip edilen bir \u201cvekil g\u00f6sterge\u201ddir (do\u011frudan \u00f6l\u00e7mek zor oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in yerine kullan\u0131lan g\u00f6sterge).<\/p>\n
Beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalan Tokyo T\u00dcFE verisi, Japonya\u2019da enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten g\u00fc\u00e7lerin) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BoJ) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ertelemek veya varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 (tahvil gibi finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin merkez bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131n\u0131p piyasaya para verilmesi) azaltmay\u0131 geciktirmek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gerek\u00e7e verir. De\u011ferlendirmemize g\u00f6re BoJ yaz boyunca destekleyici para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (ekonomiyi canl\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve bol likidite) koruyacak.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, yenin zay\u0131f kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc de destekliyor. Bunun ana nedeni, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerle faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politika faizini %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutuyor. Bu da 500 baz puan\u0131n (1 baz puan = %0,01; 500 baz puan = %5) \u00fczerinde bir \u201cgetiri fark\u0131\u201d (faiz\/getiri makas\u0131) yarat\u0131yor ve dolar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde avantajl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin (dolar\/yen kuru) 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ok uzun d\u00f6nem zirvelerini yeniden test etmesi ve 162 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00f6nelmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Alternatif olarak \u201ccarry trade\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) stratejisi kurulabilir: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli yenden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p ABD dolar\u0131 veya Meksika pesosu gibi daha y\u00fcksek faiz veren para birimlerine ge\u00e7mek. BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve likiditeyi azaltma) yana\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bu ortam\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f yen, Japon hisseleri i\u00e7in de destekleyici bir unsur olabilir; \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in. Nikkei 225 vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (future; belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) olumlu buluyoruz. 2022-2024 d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ile Nikkei\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fler aras\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 bir ili\u015fki g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirlerin yen cinsinden b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fla\u015f veri: Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE May\u0131s\u2019ta %1,3 ile beklenti (%1,5) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Enflasyon ivmesi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 erteleyebilir. Yen bask\u0131da, USD\/JPY 162 test edebilir; Nikkei ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 desteklenir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47633\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}