Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesi uzatmak i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici bir anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 4.500 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi ve iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparland\u0131. Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re teklif, ate\u015fkese 60 g\u00fcn ekleyecek ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acak. Bu durum, \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme do\u011fru gidebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump hen\u00fcz \u015fartlar\u0131 kabul etmedi; uzatma da do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerinde, BEA (ABD Ekonomik Analiz B\u00fcrosu), PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u00d6nceki okuma %3,5\u2019ti; veri beklentiyle uyumlu geldi. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,2\u2019den %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve tahminlerle uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ayl\u0131k bazda man\u015fet PCE %0,4 artarken, \u00e7ekirdek PCE %0,2 y\u00fckseldi. Ayr\u0131ca D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de rezervlerine yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi; bu, kay\u0131tlar\u0131n tutulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m. Alt\u0131n genelde ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle (Treasuries: ABD\u2019nin devlet bor\u00e7lanma senetleri) ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder; enflasyona ve paran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma arac\u0131 olarak da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes uzatma anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6neme\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu haber, fiyatlar\u0131 4.500 dolar civar\u0131nda destekleyen jeopolitik \u201crisk primini\u201d (belirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda eklenen g\u00fcvenli liman fiyatlamas\u0131) do\u011frudan azalt\u0131yor. Anla\u015fma kesinle\u015fmemi\u015f olsa da tansiyonda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali veriyor ve g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131nda (krizde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131klar) k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
PCE\u2019nin %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak veri beklentiye paralel ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) daha sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya zorlayacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Tarihsel olarak, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha y\u00fcksek \u201creel faiz\u201din (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz) getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir olumsuz etken oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve yap\u0131sal al\u0131mlar\u0131 alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi, son d\u00f6nemde bir y\u0131lda 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde resmi rezerve ekleme yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun 50 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyeleri aras\u0131nda oldu\u011funu bildiriyor. Bu talep fiyat\u0131n sert \u00e7\u00f6kmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; ancak jeopolitik gerginlik azal\u0131rsa bir d\u00fczeltmeyi (geri \u00e7ekilmeyi) engellemeyebilir.<\/p>\n
CFTC (ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler D\u00fczenleyicisi) verileri, hedge fonlar ve di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (future: gelecekte teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek \u201cnet uzun\u201d pozisyon (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fclerden fazla olmas\u0131) ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kadar kalabal\u0131k bir pozisyonlanma, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 gibi olumlu haberlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zla kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n (\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmenin) yak\u0131n vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi uzatma haberiyle XAU\/USD 4.500$\u2019a toparland\u0131. PCE %3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Risk primi azal\u0131rken, rekor merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor; kalabal\u0131k net-long pozisyonlar d\u00fczeltmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47630\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}