AUD\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7100 seviyesine kadar geriledikten sonra toparlanarak 0,7150 civar\u0131nda dengelendi. Bunun arkas\u0131nda, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 1\u00c7 \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n (\u015firketlerin makine, ekipman ve tesis gibi varl\u0131klara yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) beklentiyi a\u015farak \u00e7eyreklik bazda %6,5 gelmesi (beklenti: %1,0) vard\u0131. Ekipman, tesis ve makine harcamalar\u0131 %18,1 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; Avustralya \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu (ABS) bu art\u0131\u015fta veri merkezi (data center: dijital hizmetleri \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran b\u00fcy\u00fck sunucu tesisleri) in\u015faat\u0131na i\u015faret etti. 2026-27 d\u00f6nemi yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamas\u0131 (capex: sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) tahminleri de yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 yukar\u0131 revize edildi. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tablo, i\u00e7 talepteki zay\u0131fl\u0131kla \u00e7eli\u015fti: Nisan\u2019da hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda %1,1 geriledi; bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tahminlerin iki kat\u0131ndan fazla oldu. ABD taraf\u0131nda ise Nisan \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; \u00e7ekirdek: enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %0,2 ile %0,3 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Man\u015fet PCE (genel endeks) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselerek May\u0131s 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar PCE verisini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 fiyatlamayla kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131. CME FedWatch (Fed politika faizi beklentilerini vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge) y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %50\/%50 b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeye i\u015faret ederken, ABD dolar\u0131 0,7100 b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde inemedi. Teknik tarafta g\u00fcnl\u00fck 50 d\u00f6nemlik EMA (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 0,7100 civar\u0131nda ve destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI (RSI\u2019nin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Diren\u00e7, ay i\u00e7i \u00f6nceki tepe olan 0,7300 civar\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadede odak, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00c7in\u2019in NBS PMI verilerine (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi: faaliyet\/barometre g\u00f6stergesi), Pazartesi Powell\u2019a, \u00c7ar\u015famba Avustralya 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019ye ve Cuma ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisine kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n bu hafta sa\u011flam kalan 0,7100 civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek seviyesini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 gerilerken bile \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki belirgin art\u0131\u015ftan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k gelen veriler, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine neden olabilir; bu da para birimi i\u00e7in getiri taban\u0131 (faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 asgari destek) olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n
Bunun temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, 1\u00c7 sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 %6,5\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yan veri merkezi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131. Sekt\u00f6r raporlar\u0131, Avustralya veri merkezi pazar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131lda %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fini; Sydney\u2019in Asya-Pasifik (APAC) b\u00f6lgesinde ilk be\u015f merkezden biri haline geldi\u011fini do\u011fruluyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin ABD taraf\u0131nda, ABD enflasyonu Fed\u2019i yeni bir ad\u0131m atmaya zorlam\u0131yor; son \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi %3,3 ile \u00f6nceki y\u0131llardaki zirvelerden belirgin \u015fekilde uzak. CME FedWatch, piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda %50\/%50 ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; yani ABD dolar\u0131nda y\u00f6n\u00fc netle\u015ftirecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici yok. Bu nedenle beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftirecek ana veri, gelecek haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu olacak.<\/p>\n
0,7100\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde \u00f6nemli veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 varken, dalgal\u0131-yatay seyre (chop: k\u0131sa aral\u0131kta s\u0131k y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi) oynamak i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejilerine bak\u0131yoruz. Bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) Avustralya GSYH ve ABD istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Straddle veya strangle (opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131: biri ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, di\u011feri farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte alarak oynakl\u0131k hedefleyen stratejiler) almak, mevcut banttan olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD 0,7100 deste\u011finden tepkiyle 0,7150\u2019de dengelendi. Avustralya capex %6,5 s\u00fcrprizi veri merkezi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; t\u00fcketim zay\u0131f. ABD PCE kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, Fed beklentisi %50\/%50; g\u00f6zler \u00c7in PMI, GSYH, NFP\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47626","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47626"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47626\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}