Yeni Zelanda\u2019da ANZ\u2013Roy Morgan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi may\u0131sta 80,3\u2019ten 86,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, hanehalk\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ay i\u00e7inde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak endeks, genellikle \u201cgenel iyimserlik\u201d ile \u201cgenel k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fi\u201d ay\u0131ran 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131staki toparlanma, \u00f6nceki zay\u0131f sonucun ard\u0131ndan geldi ve ko\u015fullar\u0131n eskisine g\u00f6re daha az bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ANZ ve Roy Morgan, anketi t\u00fcketici tutumlar\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k bir \u201canl\u0131k foto\u011fraf\u0131\u201d olarak yay\u0131ml\u0131yor; son y\u00fckseli\u015f, man\u015fet g\u00f6stergede yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 80,3\u2019ten 86,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimi beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir sinyal. Bunu, yurt i\u00e7i harcamalar\u0131n beklenenden daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015femeyi (faiz indirimi gibi ekonomiyi destekleyici ad\u0131mlar) ertelemesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yordu; bu beklentiyi g\u00fcncellemek gerekebilir. Enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretmesi ve %3,4 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kalmas\u0131, bu t\u00fcketici g\u00fcc\u00fcyle birlikte RBNZ\u2019nin politika faizini (Official Cash Rate: RBNZ\u2019nin y\u00f6n verdi\u011fi temel faiz) %5,50\u2019den indirme iste\u011fini azalt\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131 (de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demelerini sabit faize \u00e7eviren, faiz beklentisine g\u00f6re i\u015flem yap\u0131lan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) izliyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcven art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle perakende ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki hisseler i\u00e7in de olumlu bir tetikleyici olabilir. NZX 50 endeksi zay\u0131f seyrediyordu; bu veri mevcut seviyelerden bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi harekete ge\u00e7irebilir. Zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6steren se\u00e7ili \u201ct\u00fcketici iste\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d (zorunlu olmayan harcamalara duyarl\u0131) hisselerde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna paralel, Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n da veriden destek bulmas\u0131 beklenir. RBNZ\u2019nin daha az \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi ve gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi, para birimini daha cazip k\u0131lar; \u00f6zellikle NZD\/USD paritesi 0,6150 civar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemli destek seviyelerini test ederken. Merkez bankalar\u0131 daha net bi\u00e7imde faiz indirimine giden para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131, NZD\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 uzun pozisyon (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz sinyal: Yeni Zelanda\u2019da ANZ\u2013Roy Morgan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni may\u0131sta 80,3\u2019ten 86,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Endeks 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalsa da RBNZ\u2019nin faiz indirimini \u00f6telemesi, NZD ve perakende hisselerinin destek bulmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47625\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}