Alt\u0131n, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri olan 4.366 dolar civar\u0131ndan toparlanarak y\u00fczde 1,20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkesi 60 g\u00fcn uzatmaya y\u00f6nelik bir plan bulundu\u011fu haberleriyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) art\u0131nca XAU\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.500 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Axios, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme program\u0131na (uranyumun n\u00fckleer yak\u0131ta uygun hale getirilmesi) ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrerken ate\u015fkesin korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fartlarda uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Ancak d\u00fczenlemenin, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerin onay\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu belirtildi. Haber, iki taraf\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt\u2019i hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde geldi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) y\u00fczde 0,19 gerileyerek 98,97\u2019ye indi.<\/p>\n
ABD enflasyon verileri y\u00fcksek seyretti. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak Mart\u2019taki y\u00fczde 3,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine geldi. Man\u015fet PCE (t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren genel endeks) ise y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,8 ile \u00f6nceki y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019in \u00fcst\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. B\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi: 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) y\u00fczde 1,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc; \u00f6nceki tahmin y\u00fczde 2 idi. \u0130lk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fini kaybedenlerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 haftal\u0131k ba\u015fvurular) 23 May\u0131s ile biten haftada 215 bine y\u00fckselerek 211 bin beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re piyasada 2026 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini art\u0131rmas\u0131) 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) bir ad\u0131m i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 45\u2019e geriledi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed yetkililerinin \u201csessiz d\u00f6nem\u201d (toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi kamuya a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131lmayan d\u00f6nem) ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nceki konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 4.500 dolar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.575\u20134.600 dolar band\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) b\u00f6lgesini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama; son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) 4.630 dolar ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.801 dolar izlenebilir. 4.450 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma ise 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (uzun vadeli trend g\u00f6stergesi) 4.399 dolar ve 4.366 dolar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirir. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisi alt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131. 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczeri \u00f6nemli bir seviye; ancak hareket daha \u00e7ok d\u00f6vizdeki dalgalanmadan kaynaklan\u0131yor, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 (belirsizlikte g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Gerginlik s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, anla\u015fma zorlan\u0131rsa ya da jeopolitik riskler yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131rsa y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n temel deste\u011fi merkez bankas\u0131 talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131 2023\u2019te 1.037 tonla tarihi zirveye yak\u0131n al\u0131m yapt\u0131 ve 2024\u2019te de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131mlar s\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu durum fiyatlar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan etken) olu\u015fturuyor. \u00dclkeler dolar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131p rezervlerini \u00e7e\u015fitlendirdik\u00e7e (rezervleri farkl\u0131 varl\u0131klara da\u011f\u0131tma) bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor; bu da alt\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmeleri al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun (kolay gerilemeyen y\u00fcksek enflasyon) ayn\u0131 anda g\u00fcndemde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerden iki y\u00f6nde de faydalanmak isteyenler, opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak) stratejisi, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekette kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sunar.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, uzun vadede daha belirleyici g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu tablo Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 ihtimalini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; piyasada art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi. Tarihsel olarak piyasa Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan duraklamaya\/indirime ge\u00e7i\u015f) Fed resmi olarak s\u00f6ylemeden fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine girebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d (bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) 4.575 dolar direncine do\u011fru hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken (maksimum kayb\u0131 ba\u015ftan belirlemek) Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde bir sonraki teknik seviyelere alan b\u0131rak\u0131r. Ekonomideki yava\u015flama, g\u00fcnl\u00fck jeopolitik man\u015fetlere k\u0131yasla alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n dipten d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Ate\u015fkes uzatma iddias\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131nca XAU\/USD 4.500$\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131, dolar geriledi. ABD\u2019de PCE enflasyonu y\u00fcksek; b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f. Merkez bankas\u0131 talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, 4.575-4.600 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47620\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}