USD\/THB, portf\u00f6y giri\u015flerinin etkisiyle 32,55\u2019e geriledi. Ancak Tayland\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f dengesi bozuldu; nisan ay\u0131nda ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekor seviye olan 10,0 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu rakam, marttaki 3,3 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde ve Bloomberg beklentisi olan 5,3 milyar dolar\u0131 da a\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylece ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k serisi yedinci aya uzad\u0131. Yetkililer, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ithalat\u0131n (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan al\u0131mlar) s\u00fcrmesi halinde a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilece\u011fini ve Baht \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n devam edebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmet, bu y\u0131l ihracat\u0131n %3 artaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ana tahminini korurken, en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoyu %-3, en iyi senaryoyu %+8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) odakl\u0131 ihracatta art\u0131\u015f olsa bile Baht, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %3,2 geriledi. Nisan ortas\u0131ndan beri de k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve dolara (USD) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep ile uyumlu \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, Tayland Baht\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin r\u00fczg\u00e2rla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Nisan ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 10,0 milyar dolar ile rekor k\u0131rd\u0131; piyasa beklentisinin neredeyse iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste yedinci ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yetkililer, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ithalat e\u011filimi devam ederse Baht \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Baht, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 36,80 seviyesine kadar zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %5\u2019ten fazla de\u011fer kaybetti. Bu bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Tayland Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoT) aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131. Fed politika faizini yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,75 seviyesinde tutarken, BoT faizi %2,50\u2019de. Bu \u201cfaiz fark\u0131\u201d (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark), dolar tutman\u0131n Baht tutmaya g\u00f6re daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/THB paritesinde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Baht\u2019taki zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in haziran sonu ve temmuz vadeli USD\/THB al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, azami riski \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Turist giri\u015fleri, \u00fclkeye d\u00f6viz kazand\u0131ran ana kalemlerden biri. Ancak turist say\u0131s\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 2019\u2019daki pandemi \u00f6ncesi zirvenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 alt\u0131nda ve bu seviye, y\u00fcksek ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 (ithalat i\u00e7in \u00f6denen toplam tutar) dengelemeye yetmiyor. Bu nedenle, USD\/THB\u2019de \u201ccall spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet i\u00e7in bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satma stratejisi) kurmak da kurda kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yararlanmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Baht\u2019\u0131 vurdu: USD\/THB 32,55\u2019e inse de nisan a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 10 milyar $ ile rekor. 7 ayd\u0131r a\u00e7\u0131k, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ithalat ve Fed-BoT faiz fark\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47619\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}