Dolar, ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin eskisi kadar sa\u011flam g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemesiyle toparland\u0131; dolar endeksi daha \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Nisan\u2019daki zirvelerine yeniden yakla\u015farak y\u00fckseldi. ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri (devlet tahvillerinin getirisi) y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu da tahvillerde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen, faizler artarken bile dolara talep (al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD hisseleri y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: S&P 500 yeni rekor seviyeleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve art arda dokuzuncu haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fine gidiyor. Bu seri, son 70 y\u0131lda yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 kez g\u00f6r\u00fclen nadir bir durum. Alt\u0131n 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi; Mart ay\u0131ndaki uzun s\u00fcren dip seviyelerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00f6lgeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 (200 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; uzun vadeli trend g\u00f6stergesi) test ediyor. Bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde 4.000\u20134.100 dolar band\u0131 hedefe girebilir. Kripto tarafta, May\u0131s\u2019ta ba\u015flayan zay\u0131fl\u0131k Bitcoin\u2019in 82.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan derinle\u015fti; 65.000 dolara do\u011fru hareket riski artt\u0131. Ethereum 2.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi ve uzun vadeli destek seviyesini (fiyat\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte s\u0131k\u00e7a tutundu\u011fu taban b\u00f6lge) yeniden test etti. Veri takvimi yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor: Pazartesi ISM \u0130malat Endeksi (ABD\u2019de imalat\u0131n nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan anket), Sal\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi May\u0131s \u00f6nc\u00fc (ilk) enflasyonu, Cuma ise \u00f6nceki 115 binlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisi izlenecek. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %3 seviyesinde; ISM\u2019in fiyat bile\u015feni (\u015firketlerin maliyet\/fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren alt kalem) daha \u00f6nce d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn art arda dokuzuncu haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fi, tarihsel olarak nadir g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, piyasay\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede \u201cfazla y\u00fckselmi\u015f\u201d (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 prim yapm\u0131\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 2017 sonundaki benzer seriler, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yatay hareket (konsolidasyon) veya sert geri \u00e7ekilmelerle devam etmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle, yaz tatili d\u00f6nemi \u00f6ncesinde olas\u0131 k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in endekste k\u0131sa vadeli put spread (put opsiyonu al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satma; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 korunma stratejisi) al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi Nisan\u2019daki yakla\u015f\u0131k 106 seviyesine yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131yor; ancak bu g\u00fcc\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na ikna de\u011filiz. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmemesi, piyasada teredd\u00fct oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6nemli veriler \u00f6ncesinde bunu yatay bant (range) piyasas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; d\u00f6viz ETF\u2019lerinde (kur sepetlerini izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131) opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (volatilite satmak: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynay\u0131p opsiyon primi toplamak) yap\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131nda kritik bir s\u0131nava i\u015faret ediyor. Bu seviye 2023\u2019ten beri bir\u00e7ok kez g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak bu kez piyasa \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201dda (\u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 tepki ihtimalinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 durum) de\u011fil; bu da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu \u00f6nemli teknik seviye tutmazsa 4.100 dolar b\u00f6lgesine hareket hedefiyle put alarak (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan opsiyon) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon kuruyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kripto para piyasas\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi (bearish momentum: sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ethereum\u2019un 2.000 dolar\u0131 koruyamamas\u0131, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 verileri put\/call oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in daha fazla \u00f6deme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) art\u0131r\u0131yoruz; Bitcoin\u2019in 2026\u2019daki \u00f6nceki dip b\u00f6lgesi olan 65.000 dolara yeniden inebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ate\u015fkes belirsizli\u011fiyle dolar toparland\u0131, ancak faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen talep s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. S&P 500 dokuz haftad\u0131r y\u00fckselerek rekor k\u0131rd\u0131; d\u00fczeltme riski. Alt\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 test ediyor; kriptoda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131, Bitcoin\u2019de 65 bin riski. Veri haftas\u0131: ISM, Euro enflasyonu, NFP.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47615\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}