WTI ham petrol, ABD-\u0130ran geli\u015fmelerinin havay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc sert bi\u00e7imde iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc dalgaland\u0131. Kontrat, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 91,27 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldikten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi; piyasada hem yeniden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimali hem de diplomasi s\u00f6ylemleri tart\u0131l\u0131rken yaz\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar ilk etapta Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131 haberleriyle y\u00fckseldi. Buna ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait askeri noktalara sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n K\u00f6rfez\u2019de bir ABD hava \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 da dahildi. Ancak Axios\u2019un, \u00f6n anla\u015fma niteli\u011finde bir ABD-\u0130ran uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011funu yazmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hareket tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc; WTI g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 86,28 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Haberde, mevcut ate\u015fkesi (ge\u00e7ici \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131k) uzatmak i\u00e7in 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir \u201cmutabakat zapt\u0131\u201dndan (taraflar\u0131n niyetini kayda ge\u00e7iren, ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6n metin) s\u00f6z edildi ve bunun Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n nihai onay\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz ba\u015fl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ni a\u00e7\u0131k denize ba\u011flayan kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f hatt\u0131) kontrol\u00fc yer ald\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yeni kurulan \u201cPersian Gulf Strait Authority\u201d hakk\u0131nda \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yeni yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de bir \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d sistemi (bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en gemilerden \u00fccret al\u0131nmas\u0131) kabul edilmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; b\u00f6yle bir \u00fccretlendirmeye kat\u0131lan ortaklar\u0131n cezaland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma man\u015fetleri ile ate\u015fkes s\u00f6ylentileri aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 86-91 dolar band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz. Bu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hassasiyet, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana g\u00fcndemin \u201cvolatilite\u201d (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Washington veya Tahran\u2019dan gelecek her haberle sert hareket riski bulundu\u011fundan, riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in \u201copsiyon\u201d stratejilerine bak\u0131yoruz. Opsiyon, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m ya da sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir. Son veriler, WTI opsiyonlar\u0131nda 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u201cima edilen volatilitenin\u201d (piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %45\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu seviyeler y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgesel gerilimlerden beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu ortam, y\u00f6n\u00fc tahmin etmek yerine b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanan stratejilere uygun.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tablo, 2019 yaz\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde fiyatlar korkuyla y\u00fckselmi\u015f, ancak ham petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde aksamay\u0131nca h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde geri vermi\u015fti. Benzer bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcde, s\u00f6ylentiyle ger\u00e7ek geli\u015fmelerin piyasay\u0131 z\u0131t y\u00f6nlere \u00e7ekmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes haberine ra\u011fmen daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn gelmemesinde, piyasan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 \u201ctemelleri\u201d (arz\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, stoklar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 gibi temel g\u00f6stergeler) etkili. EIA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi; resmi enerji veri kurumu) son raporu, k\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n %5 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu da fiyatlar i\u00e7in destek olu\u015fturuyor. Ayr\u0131ca d\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ger\u00e7ek bir arz kesintisi, etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ncelikli takip noktas\u0131, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck mutabakat zapt\u0131na dair teyit ve nihai onay s\u00fcreci. Netlik olu\u015fana kadar \u201cuzun straddle\u201d kurman\u0131n (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\u2014call\u2014hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\u2014put\u2014sat\u0131n almak) k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir pozisyonlama oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, anla\u015fma bozulur ve fiyatlar s\u0131\u00e7rarsa da, anla\u015fma do\u011frulan\u0131r ve fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015ferse de kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon zirvede: WTI, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle 91 dolar\u0131 test edip 86\u2019ya indi, 88\u2019de dengelendi. Ate\u015fkes mutabakat\u0131 s\u00f6ylentisi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski volatiliteyi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k %45\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47614\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}