Sterlin, Axios\u2019un ABD ve \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakerecilerin ate\u015fkesi uzatmak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 (n\u00fckleer faaliyetlere ili\u015fkin anla\u015fma s\u00fcreci) i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ba\u015flatmak \u00fczere 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir **mutabakat zapt\u0131** (taraflar\u0131n niyetini yaz\u0131l\u0131 olarak kayda ge\u00e7iren, ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6n anla\u015fma) konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun da Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump dahil onaylara ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti ve %0,08 y\u00fckseldi. GBP\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3367 dip seviyesinden toparlanarak 1,3437\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, **ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY)** (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla %0,17 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,05\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri makro tabloyu g\u00fcndemde tuttu. **\u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu** (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2\u2019den %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; ilk \u00e7eyrek **GSYH** (bir ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2\u2019den %1,6\u2019ya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi. Ayr\u0131ca 23 May\u0131s ile biten haftada **ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131** 215 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; beklenti 211 bindi. \u0130ngiltere siyasetinde \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi (Labour) liderli\u011fi i\u00e7indeki gerilimlerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, g\u00f6zler \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey\u2019in konu\u015fmas\u0131na ve Schmid, Bowman, Paulson ve Daly dahil Fed yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta GBP\/USD 1,3445 civar\u0131ndaki **\u00dc\u00e7l\u00fc SMA** (farkl\u0131 d\u00f6nemlere ait \u00fc\u00e7 basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu b\u00f6lge; trendi g\u00f6stermede kullan\u0131l\u0131r) alan\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda 1,3436 civar\u0131nda; **RSI** (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 47\u2019ye yak\u0131n. Diren\u00e7 1,3611 civar\u0131nda, destek ise 1,3339 ve 1,3159 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadede ABD dolar\u0131nda zay\u0131flama bekliyoruz. Ate\u015fkesin netle\u015fmesi, piyasada **risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi) \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olur ve dolar\u0131n **g\u00fcvenli liman** (piyasa stresi art\u0131nca tercih edilen varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fini zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Anla\u015fma resmen onaylan\u0131rsa ilk y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalamak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD gibi paritelerde **al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu** (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bunu zay\u0131f ABD verileriyle birlikte okumak gerekiyor. %3,3 seviyesinde kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu ile %1,6\u2019ya gerileyen b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin birle\u015fimi **stagflasyon** (y\u00fcksek enflasyon + zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durum Fed\u2019i zorlar ve belirsizlik yarat\u0131r; bu da dolardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn derinle\u015fmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu tabloyu destekliyor: May\u0131s **ABD \u0130malat PMI** (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) 49,8\u2019e geriledi ve daralma sinyali verdi. 1970\u2019lere benzer stagflasyon d\u00f6nemlerinde piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) genelde artar. Bu nedenle al\u0131nacak pozisyonlar\u0131n **hedge** edilmesi (olas\u0131 ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 korunma) \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de iktidardaki \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi i\u00e7indeki siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmeler nedeniyle sterlin konusunda temkinliyiz. Bu i\u00e7 gerilim, GBP\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. 1,3600 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seviyelerde **paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha yukar\u0131da olan al\u0131m opsiyonunu satmak; prim geliri hedeflenir) bu \u201ctavan\u201d ihtimalinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in daha dengeli bir risk-getiri sunabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili etkenler nedeniyle, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3445 civar\u0131ndaki hareketli ortalama b\u00f6lgesinin hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bant i\u00e7inde seyretmesini bekliyoruz. **N\u00f6tr bir opsiyon stratejisi** olarak **k\u0131sa straddle** (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ve put opsiyonunu ayn\u0131 anda satmak; fiyat \u00e7ok oynamazsa ve zaman de\u011feri erirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar) zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden (opsiyon priminin vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a azalmas\u0131) yararlanmak i\u00e7in uygun olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, olumlu jeopolitik haberlerle her iki ekonomideki zay\u0131f i\u00e7 dinamikler aras\u0131nda paritenin s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalmas\u0131 halinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik s\u00fcrpriz sterlini canland\u0131rd\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck mutabakat zapt\u0131 haberiyle GBP\/USD 1,3437\u2019ye toparland\u0131. Dolar zay\u0131flarken PCE %3,3, b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,6. Bant\/opsiyon stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47610\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}