ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri, do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131nda haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. 22 May\u0131s ile biten haftada depolama miktar\u0131 92 milyar fit k\u00fcp artt\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki haftada art\u0131\u015f 101 milyar fit k\u00fcpt\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flama, son raporlama d\u00f6neminde depolara gaz basma h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00fcncelleme stok de\u011fi\u015fimine odaklan\u0131yor; son art\u0131\u015f, \u00f6nceki haftan\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 9 milyar fit k\u00fcp alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
92 Bcf\u2019lik (milyar fit k\u00fcp) son stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6nceki haftaya g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa da piyasada arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu art\u0131\u015f, bu haftaya ait 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama olan 89 Bcf\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinde. Toplam stok 2.703 Bcf\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, stoklar\u0131n tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n %22\u2019den fazla \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layan ana unsur kesintisiz \u00fcretim. ABD \u201ckuru gaz\u201d \u00fcretimi (i\u015fleme s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 102 Bcf seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu arz g\u00fcc\u00fc, \u015fimdilik fiyatlarda belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle Henry Hub vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (ABD do\u011fal gaz\u0131 i\u00e7in ana referans fiyat) k\u0131sa vadede 3,00 dolar\/MMBtu seviyesinin (MMBtu: milyon \u0130ngiliz \u0131s\u0131 birimi, gaz i\u00e7in enerji bazl\u0131 fiyat \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) alt\u0131nda yatay bir bantta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilecek iki temel y\u00fckseli\u015f unsurunu yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ihracat talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; terminallere giden \u201cfeedgas\u201d (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma tesislerine g\u00f6nderilen ham gaz) ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,5 Bcf\u2019in \u00fczerinde. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, NOAA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD Ulusal Okyanus ve Atmosfer \u0130daresi) erken tahminleri Haziran\u2019\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Teksas ve G\u00fcney eyaletlerinde mevsim normallerinin \u00fczerinde s\u0131cakl\u0131klara i\u015faret ediyor; bu da elektrik \u00fcretiminde klima kullan\u0131m\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 so\u011futma talebini normalden erken ba\u015flatabilir.<\/p>\n
Arz fazlas\u0131 s\u00fcrerken talep taraf\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ihtimali nedeniyle bu dengeye uygun stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Yaz d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in artan dalgalanma beklentisiyle opsiyon primi (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015finen ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplamak amac\u0131yla \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 y\u00fcksek\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin temmuz vadeli 3,50 dolar call. Bu pozisyon, fiyatlar\u0131n dalgal\u0131 seyretmesi veya k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 k\u0131rmamas\u0131 halinde avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u201cpower burn\u201d verileri (elektrik \u00fcretiminde do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketimi) ve 6-10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hava tahmini g\u00fcncellemeleri olacak. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131 stok fazlas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla azaltabilir ve mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentimizi zorlayabilir. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cenjeksiyonlar\u0131n\u201d (depoya net gaz giri\u015finin) 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inip inmedi\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in EIA raporlar\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de do\u011falgaz stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 92 Bcf\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131; toplam 2.703 Bcf ile ortalaman\u0131n %22 \u00fczerinde. \u00dcretim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, Henry Hub 3,00$ alt\u0131 bask\u0131da. LNG talebi ve s\u0131cak hava riskleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47607\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}