ABN AMRO, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (MPC) yaz aylar\u0131nda bir kez daha \u201csigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131\u201d faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor, ancak bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe olan g\u00fcveni \u00f6nceye g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Banka, Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha istekli) ileti\u015fime k\u0131yasla daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az istekli) bir tona ge\u00e7ildi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc olgunla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00f6nlendirmenin yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu olas\u0131 hamlenin ard\u0131ndan ABN AMRO, 3. \u00e7eyrekte enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak normale d\u00f6nmesiyle \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funa geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Politika faizi (Bank Rate: BoE\u2019nin temel politika faizi) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u201ck\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131\u201d (ekonomide talebi so\u011futan, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatan d\u00fczeyde) olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, banka faiz indirimlerinin 2026 sonuna kadar yeniden ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Buna g\u00f6re g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; son bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan duraklama ve sonras\u0131nda gev\u015feme ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce uzun bir s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019ndan (MPC) y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki daha sert tutumdan uzakla\u015fan, daha temkinli bir ton g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Enflasyonun Nisan\u2019da %3,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son veriler, faizlerde zirvenin \u00e7ok yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu da piyasalar\u0131n A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar toplam 25 baz puanl\u0131k (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 1\/100\u2019\u00fc; 25 bp = %0,25) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olmas\u0131n\u0131n fazla agresif olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yine de bu yaz bir kez daha \u201csigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131\u201d son bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n\u0131z, ancak kanaatimiz zay\u0131flad\u0131. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) d\u00fc\u015fmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir finansal varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemlerin etkili olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin SONIA vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (SONIA futures: \u0130ngiltere gecelik faiz referans\u0131 SONIA\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) sonbahar vadeli \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak. Strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131rsa prim gelirinden faydalan\u0131r. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 son bir hamleden sonra merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n uzun bir s\u00fcre faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda odak, faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131na kaymal\u0131. 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin (GDP: gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) %0,1 ile yatay gelmesi, mevcut politikan\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 etkisinin BoE\u2019yi bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden daha erken ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Faiz indirimlerinin 2026 sonlar\u0131nda ba\u015flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alman\u0131n anlaml\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ileri ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7l\u0131 faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131yla (forward-starting interest rate swap: gelecekte ba\u015flayacak \u015fekilde, taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ifade edilebilir. Buna g\u00f6re 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayacak bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in sabit faiz almay\u0131 (receive fixed: sabit faiz tahsil edip de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demeyi) kabul ederiz. Tarihsel olarak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bozuldu\u011funda BoE, ilk tahmin edilenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz indirimlerine gidebildi. Bu da d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f tam olarak fiyatlara yans\u0131madan \u00f6nce \u015fimdiden pozisyon alman\u0131n daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE\u2019de ton g\u00fcvercine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor: ABN AMRO yaz\u0131n \u201csigorta\u201d ama\u00e7l\u0131 son 25 bp art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini zay\u0131flatsa da masada tutuyor. Sonras\u0131: bekle-g\u00f6r, 2026 sonuna kadar indirim yok.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47606\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}