EUR\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1.1586 seviyesindeki dipten toparlanarak 1.1655 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD\u2019den gelen bir dizi veri, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri s\u00fcrse de ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) deste\u011fi azaltt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakan enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) nisanda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131; marttaki %0,3\u2019ten yava\u015flad\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ise %3,2\u2019den %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve beklentilerle uyumlu geldi. Ayl\u0131k verinin yumu\u015famas\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131; enflasyon Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalsa da.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 Dolar\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki seyrini g\u00f6steren endeks) 99 civar\u0131nda seyretti; daha \u00f6nce 99,54 ile yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ayr\u0131 veriler, ABD ekonomisinin 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) %1,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; \u00f6nceki %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ancak %2\u2019lik \u00f6nc\u00fc tahminin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 215 bine y\u00fckseldi (beklenti 211 bin, \u00f6nceki 210 bin). Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri (u\u00e7ak, makine gibi uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcnlere talebi g\u00f6steren veri) marttaki %1,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan nisanda %7,9 artt\u0131. Jeopolitik belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken Axios, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n onay\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n \u00e7er\u00e7eve haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Bu haber, petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerini ve Fed ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 ve ayl\u0131k enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131, Dolar i\u00e7in karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki dalgalanma beklentisi) y\u00fckseliyor. CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ \u2013 EUR\/USD\u2019de beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 izleyen endeks) son d\u00f6nemde 9,2 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, daha sert fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de ayl\u0131k enflasyonun yava\u015flamas\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) ECB\u2019den daha erken gev\u015fetmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. ECB cephesinde son mesajlar daha s\u0131k\u0131 tonda; Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle 1,1750 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike), haziran sonu veya temmuz vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call \u2013 kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) ile yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin hedeflenmesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Dolar\u2019daki zay\u0131flamay\u0131 h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilecek \u00f6nemli bir risk. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 burada kritik g\u00f6sterge. Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (gelecekte teslim fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6ren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) gerilim nedeniyle son bir ayda %12 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 112 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, ate\u015fkesin bozulmas\u0131 halinde 1,1500 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spot seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (put \u2013 kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) korunma (hedge \u2013 riski dengeleme) yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD, zay\u0131flayan ABD verileriyle 1,1586 dipten 1,1655\u2019e toparland\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek PCE yumu\u015fad\u0131. DXY 99\u2019da. EVZ 9,2 ile oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131. Fed-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran riski opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47603","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47603"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47603\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47603"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47603"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47603"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}