ABD\u2019de nisan ay\u0131nda yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 artt\u0131 ve piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde geldi. Piyasa ortalama tahmini 0,67 milyondu; a\u00e7\u0131klanan veri 622 bin oldu. Bu, ayl\u0131k bazda (bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) ay\u0131n beklenenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sonu\u00e7 verdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, ABD konut piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 tamaml\u0131yor ve konut talebi ile genel ekonomik ivmeye dair de\u011ferlendirmelere girecek. Piyasalar, faizler, arz ko\u015fullar\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015fa sunulan konut say\u0131s\u0131) ve al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc eri\u015filebilirli\u011fi (hane gelirine g\u00f6re konutun al\u0131nabilirli\u011fi) nedeniyle bu s\u00fcrprizin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini tartacak.<\/p>\n
Nisan yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 verisi, beklenen 670 bin seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f 622 bin adetle belirgin \u015fekilde beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu, Freddie Mac verilerine g\u00f6re yeniden %7\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fcksek mortgage (konut kredisi) faizlerinin t\u00fcketici talebini ciddi bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalan sekt\u00f6rde so\u011fuman\u0131n ilk somut i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Konut taraf\u0131ndaki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerini de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu rapordan \u00f6nce, fed funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed\u2019in politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131) Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %45 olarak ima ediyordu. Bu yeni verinin, Fed\u2019in uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkisinin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek faiz indirimi ihtimalini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 i\u015flem g\u00f6ren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, uzun vadeli faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu, daha uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak veya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ZN) uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefi) a\u00e7mak anlam\u0131na geliyor. Piyasa Fed\u2019in daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi ve daha gev\u015fek politika e\u011filimi) bir \u00e7izgiye kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flarsa, bu pozisyonlar getirilerin (tahvil faizi\/yield) d\u00fc\u015fmesinden do\u011frudan fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren konut in\u015faat\u0131 \u015firketleri (homebuilders) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in ITB veya XHB gibi sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rneklerle de destekleniyor; \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda art arda gelen zay\u0131f sonu\u00e7lar, in\u015faat \u015firketi hisselerinde birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek s\u00fcrebilen zirveye i\u015faret edebiliyordu.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, genel ekonomi i\u00e7in de uyar\u0131 niteli\u011finde ve piyasada dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi; piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku\u201d g\u00f6stergesi) \u015fu anda 14 gibi g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyedeyken, portf\u00f6y korumas\u0131 almak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli olabilir. Konut taraf\u0131ndaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n daha geni\u015f bir ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n erken sinyali olmas\u0131 halinde oynakl\u0131kta s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 eklemeyi hedge (riskten korunma) arac\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz konut verisi piyasay\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131: ABD\u2019de nisan yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 622 binle 670 bin beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Y\u00fcksek mortgage faizi talebi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; Fed indirimi fiyatlanabilir: uzun tahvil long, homebuilder put, VIX hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47599","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47599"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47599\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}