ABD\u2019de yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda artt\u0131, ancak piyasan\u0131n 0,67 milyonluk beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veri 622 bin oldu; bu da ilk el konut piyasas\u0131nda (m\u00fcteahhitten yap\u0131lan yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131) bahar sat\u0131\u015f sezonu ilerlerken hareketlili\u011fin beklenenden zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Veri, 622 bin ile 0,67 milyonluk tahminin alt\u0131nda kalarak beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Bu sapma, yeni konut i\u015flemleri ayl\u0131k bazda artsa da Nisan\u2019da talebin piyasa beklentisi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan\u2019daki 622 binlik yeni konut sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tahmini kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki so\u011fuman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir para politikas\u0131na (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine faiz indirimi veya daha gev\u015fek duru\u015fa) y\u00f6nelmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Piyasa, y\u0131l bitmeden faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
30 y\u0131ll\u0131k konut kredisi faizleri (mortgage; ev al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in uzun vadeli kredi faizi) bu ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,8 seviyesinde kal\u0131rken, konuta eri\u015filebilirlik (gelire g\u00f6re ev alabilme g\u00fcc\u00fc) \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu zay\u0131f konut verisi ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n (i\u015fsiz kalanlar\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 destek ba\u015fvurular\u0131) ge\u00e7en hafta 225 bine hafif y\u00fckselmesi, ekonomide yava\u015flama anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli SOFR kontratlar\u0131nda (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizi; vadeli kontrat ise gelecekteki faiz beklentisine g\u00f6re i\u015flem g\u00f6ren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; piyasalar\u0131n faiz indirimini daha agresif fiyatlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131fl\u0131k konut \u00fcreticilerini (homebuilder; yeni konut in\u015fa edip satan \u015firketler) do\u011frudan etkiliyor ve \u015firketlerin yakla\u015fan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmelerin (guidance; y\u00f6netimin gelecek d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin sat\u0131\u015f\/k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k beklentileri) bu yava\u015flamay\u0131 yans\u0131tmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi faizlerin h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde konut \u00fcreticisi hisseleri, Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fi (pivot; politikan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmadan gev\u015femeye d\u00f6nmesi) netle\u015fene kadar zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterdi. Sekt\u00f6rde olas\u0131 ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla XHB ETF \u00fczerinde (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; XHB: konut ve in\u015faat \u015firketlerini izleyen fon) temmuz vadeli \u201czarar noktas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan, \u015fu an i\u00e7in de\u011fersiz g\u00f6r\u00fcnen) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bir hedge (korunma i\u015flemi) olarak f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Nisan\u2019da artt\u0131 ama 622 binle 0,67 milyon beklentisini ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Konut cephesindeki so\u011fuma, Fed\u2019e g\u00fcvercin bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; SOFR uzun, XHB\u2019de put hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47598\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}