UOB, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (nakit faiz oran\u0131n\u0131) %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka, man\u015fet enflasyondaki (genel enflasyon) yumu\u015fama ile i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda (istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131) so\u011fuma ve \u00fccretlerdeki durgunlu\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. UOB, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini, bu nedenle karar vericilerin \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha dengeli bir tercih yapmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n, enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmezse faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini masada tutan \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filimini\u201d (gerekirse faizi art\u0131rma y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015f) korumas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak bu y\u0131lki \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n zaten yeterince s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Buna g\u00f6re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, ikinci \u00e7eyrek enflasyonu, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 e\u011filimleri ve hanehalk\u0131 talebini izleyerek \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi olas\u0131. UOB, en az 2027\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar faiz taraf\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %4,35\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son veriler, man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,4\u2019e geriledi\u011fini ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na bekleme alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu durum, yak\u0131n vadede h\u0131zl\u0131 bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu sabitlik beklentisiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine y\u00f6nelik kontratlar) ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejilerde f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin 90 g\u00fcnl\u00fck banka bonosu vadeli i\u015flemlerinde straddle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim toplama). Ama\u00e7, piyasa RBA\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon primini (opsiyonun sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131nan gelir) toplamak.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu politika duru\u015fu, g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi tetikleyebilecek \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc (hareketi ba\u015flatan ana unsur) ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte faizlerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde RBA\u2019n\u0131n n\u00f6tr kalmas\u0131, kurun dar bantta kalmas\u0131na ya da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Bu nedenle, paritenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde olan AUD\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 (out-of-the-money call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte RBA, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,8 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu kabul ederek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filimini koruyor. Bu da, olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa da, gelecek veriler beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu ihtimale kar\u015f\u0131, politika faizi \u00fczerine uzun vadeli ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir pozisyon, korunma (hedge: olumsuz senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 risk azaltma) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar dikkat: UOB, RBA\u2019n\u0131n haziranda faizi %4,35\u2019te tutup \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de ge\u00e7mesini bekliyor. Man\u015fet enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc so\u011fuyor; \u00e7ekirdek y\u00fcksek. Oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, AUD\u2019de yukar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47597\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}