\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na girilirken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor ve bu durum enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u015foku s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp kal\u0131c\u0131 hale getiriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 sa\u011flansa bile \u015fokun bir s\u00fcre daha devam etmesi bekleniyor; enerji piyasalar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften ziyade uzun s\u00fcreli aksama riskine a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bask\u0131, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde ABD\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri \u015fokunun (ithalata ek vergi) reel ekonomiyi (\u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim gibi \u201cger\u00e7ek\u201d ekonomik faaliyetler) zaten zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemin hemen ard\u0131ndan geliyor. Senaryo analizi (farkl\u0131 varsay\u0131mlarla olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7me y\u00f6ntemi), y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin kilit sekt\u00f6rlerinde \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 (\u015firketlerin \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat) \u00fczerindeki etkisini say\u0131salla\u015ft\u0131rmak ve ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015ftik\u00e7e rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn (yabanc\u0131 rakiplere g\u00f6re fiyat\/maliyet avantaj\u0131) nas\u0131l kayabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre yap\u0131sal olarak (ge\u00e7ici de\u011fil, daha uzun s\u00fcreli) y\u00fcksek seyredece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol mart ay\u0131ndaki kapanmadan bu yana varil ba\u015f\u0131na 125 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir \u015fok, 2020\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde (dayanak varl\u0131k petrol gibi emtialar olan vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) belirgin al\u0131m-sat\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu ortamdan yararlanmak i\u00e7in petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride teslim fiyat\u0131 bug\u00fcnden belirlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00fczerine uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Piyasadaki oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert hareket etmesi) y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in, bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) kullanmak da yeni pozisyonlarda riski y\u00f6netmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu strateji, fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131rken olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 daha net s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Enerji t\u00fcketimi y\u00fcksek olan \u0130svi\u00e7reli sanayi \u015firketlerinin k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k marjlar\u0131nda (sat\u0131\u015ftan kalan k\u00e2r oran\u0131) ciddi bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz. Son \u0130svi\u00e7re imalat PMI verisi (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma demektir) 48,5\u2019e geriledi; bu, daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor ve \u015foklar gelmeden \u00f6nce ocakta g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 54,2 seviyesinden sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu tablo, \u00f6nde gelen \u0130svi\u00e7re hisseleri i\u00e7in zorlu bir faaliyet ortam\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u0130svi\u00e7re Piyasa Endeksi (SMI) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya \u201cikili i\u015flem\u201d (pairs trade: bir varl\u0131kta k\u0131sa pozisyon, di\u011ferinde uzun pozisyon alarak g\u00f6reli performansa oynama) kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz: \u0130svi\u00e7re sanayi hisselerinde k\u0131sa pozisyona kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Kuzey Amerika enerji \u00fcreticilerinde uzun pozisyon. \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve 0,9500 seviyesini test etmesi de \u0130svi\u00e7re i\u00e7 ekonomisine dair bu negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ayda: Brent 125 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fok. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de tarife sonras\u0131 PMI 48,5; marjlar bask\u0131da. Strateji: petrol call\/bo\u011fa spread, SMI put; sanayi short\u2013NA enerji long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47596\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}