Kanada dolar\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesiyle piyasalarda temkinli hava (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f) artt\u0131 ve USD\/CAD yeni yerel zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti. CAD, USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,2 gerilerken G10 para birimleri i\u00e7inde orta s\u0131ralarda yer ald\u0131. ABD\u2013Kanada tahvil getirisi fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesi de k\u0131sa vadede faiz beklentilerini dar bir aral\u0131kta tuttu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar 10 Haziran veya 15 Temmuz toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Ekim\u2019e kadar BoC\u2019den en az bir kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; faizde y\u00fczde 0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor. USD\/CAD, yerel zirveleri a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra 1,38\u2019li seviyelerin \u00fcst band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik sinyaller) g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken RSI 70\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; RSI\u2019da 70 seviyesi genelde \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi) e\u015fi\u011fi kabul edilir. Teknik seviyeler olarak 1,3900 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorlayan seviye) ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (uzun d\u00f6nem trendi izleyen teknik g\u00f6sterge) olan 1,3812 civar\u0131 destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan seviye) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu da k\u0131sa vadede 1,3800\u20131,3900 band\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131, USD\/CAD kurunun yeni zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretmesiyle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybediyor. Zay\u0131fl\u0131kta temkinli piyasa havas\u0131 ve CAD \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131lar etkili. ABD ile Kanada aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca olumsuz unsur.<\/p>\n
Tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,75 iken benzer vadeli Kanada tahvili yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,20 seviyesinde. Aradaki 55 baz puanl\u0131k fark, fonlar\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 cinsi varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilme de CAD i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek kanal\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 78 dolar\/varil seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
BoC net sinyal \u00fcretmiyor ve piyasalar en erken Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n son enflasyon verisinde T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %2,6\u2019ya geriledi. Bu tablo, merkez bankas\u0131na bekle-g\u00f6r i\u00e7in alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. ABD para politikas\u0131 beklentileriyle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu fark USD\u2019yi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin bir s\u00fcre daha devam edebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak g\u00f6stergeler \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi i\u00e7in dikkatli olunuyor. Yak\u0131n vade i\u00e7in 1,3800\u20131,3900 band\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 1,3812 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan \u201cput spread\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Put spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, ayn\u0131 vadede iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullanarak prim geliri elde etmeyi hedefleyen, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir opsiyon stratejisidir. Kurun yatay kalmas\u0131 veya y\u00fckselmesi senaryosunda getiri sa\u011flar; olas\u0131 zarar ise yap\u0131 gere\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Kur 1,3812\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a stratejinin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 beklenir. \u0130zlenecek ana diren\u00e7 1,3900; bu seviye k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik risk t\u0131rman\u0131rken CAD zay\u0131flad\u0131: USD\/CAD 1,38 \u00fcst band\u0131nda yeni zirvelere yak\u0131n. ABD-Kanada faiz fark\u0131 ve petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; RSI 70. Teknik bant 1,3800\u20131,3900. BoC art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Ekim\u2019e \u00f6teleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47594\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}