USD\/KRW, 1.510\u2019un k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1.500\u2019e do\u011fru geriledi. Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoK) politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi ancak daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015f benimsedi. Kospi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde kayb\u0131n\u0131 %5\u2019e kadar ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131ktan sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019e indirdi. BoK, politika faizini (baz faiz) %2,50\u2019de \u00fcst \u00fcste sekizinci toplant\u0131da sabit tuttu ve bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u201cfaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etti. Y\u00f6netim Kurulu\u2019ndaki (para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurul) yedi \u00fcyeden ikisi 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, yani 0,25 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca 2026 tahminlerini yukar\u0131 revize etti. Reel GSYH (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 0,6 y\u00fczde puan y\u00fckselterek %2,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; genel enflasyon) tahminlerini de art\u0131rd\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re man\u015fet enflasyon 0,5 y\u00fczde puan art\u0131\u015fla %2,7\u2019ye, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) 0,3 y\u00fczde puan art\u0131\u015fla %2,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. De\u011ferleme taraf\u0131nda won, reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru (REER; wonun, ticaret yap\u0131lan \u00fclkelerin para birimlerine g\u00f6re enflasyon farklar\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131narak hesaplanan \u201cger\u00e7ek\u201d de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) trendinin %11\u2019den fazla alt\u0131nda. Bu, 2009\u2019dan bu yana en belirgin \u201ciskonto\u201d (tarihi ortalamas\u0131na g\u00f6re ucuzluk) ve mevcut enerji \u015foku (enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert art\u0131\u015f) yat\u0131\u015fana kadar bu fark\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/KRW paritesinin 1.380 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fini izliyoruz; bu seviye ABD dolar\u0131ndaki genel diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131yor. BoK\u2019un politika faizini %3,50\u2019de tutma karar\u0131 won i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadede belirgin bir y\u00f6n hareketini zorla\u015ft\u0131ran hassas bir denge yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin tonu, s\u00fcregelen enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu oran, BoK\u2019un %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor ve \u201cfaiz indirimi\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n erken oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. BoK\u2019un bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n indirimden \u00e7ok art\u0131\u015f olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da wonun daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6stergeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan won belirgin \u015fekilde \u201cde\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; REER seviyesi 2008 finans krizinden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen dip b\u00f6lgelere yak\u0131n. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle enerji \u015fokuyla uzuyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 88 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve wonun g\u00fc\u00e7lenme potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, 1.400 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/KRW al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmay\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, BoK\u2019un \u015fahin duru\u015funun parite i\u00e7in bir \u201ctavan\u201d olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle opsiyon primi (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar. Parite dar bantta kal\u0131rsa veya won kademeli g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse fayda sa\u011flar; risk ise parite yukar\u0131 giderse artar ancak opsiyon yap\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fcst y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk \u00f6nceden tan\u0131mlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Won\u2019da \u015fahin BoK r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131: USD\/KRW 1.510\u2019u a\u015fsa da 1.500\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. BoK faizi sabit tuttu, art\u0131\u015f sinyali verdi; enflasyon tahminleri y\u00fckseldi, Kospi kayb\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47593\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}