ABD\u2019de **s\u00fcregelen i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131** (i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 alanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131) 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta biten haftada **1,786 milyon**a y\u00fckseldi. Veri, **1,78 milyon**luk beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu sonu\u00e7, ekonomistlerin tahmininden biraz daha fazla ki\u015finin **i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi** almaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu g\u00f6sterge, **i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131** (istihdam\u0131n genel durumu) ve **hanehalk\u0131 gelir e\u011filimleri** a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Piyasalar, veriyi di\u011fer ABD istihdam g\u00f6stergeleri ve a\u00e7\u0131klanacak **makro veriler** (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, istihdam gibi genel ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler) ile birlikte, toparlanman\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131na dair ipucu arayarak de\u011ferlendirecek.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ortas\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n beklentiyi az da olsa a\u015fmas\u0131, i\u015fsiz kalanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tahmin edilenden y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda **yumu\u015fama** (istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama \u00f6nemli bir sinyal.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, **ilk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n** (ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurusu yapanlar) da **221 bin**e y\u00fckselmesiyle destekleniyor; bu seviye aylard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Ayr\u0131ca Nisan\u2019da **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda **%3,6**ya geriledi. Bu birikimli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, **ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed)** y\u0131l bitmeden **faiz indirimi** (politika faizini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme) ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken ekonomide h\u0131z kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, Fed\u2019in daha **g\u00fcvercin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az istekli, indirime daha yak\u0131n) bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayabilecek **faiz t\u00fcrevlerine** (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriliyor. Buna, **Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri** \u00fczerinde **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak da dahil. Ama\u00e7, **tahvil getirilerinin** (faiz oran\u0131, getiri) d\u00fc\u015fmesine y\u00f6nelik konum almak.<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u015fu anda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k **%45** olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcrerse bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse endekslerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha belirsiz. Zay\u0131flayan ekonomi, \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur oldu\u011fundan, S&P 500 \u00fczerinde **koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) portf\u00f6y i\u00e7in bir **korunma** (risk azaltma) arac\u0131 olabilir. \u00d6te yandan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler hisseleri destekleyebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in, belirsizlikten yararlanmak amac\u0131yla **put kredi spreadi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 fiyatlardan put opsiyonu al\u0131p satarak prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) da kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in politika y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesine giden d\u00f6nemler (\u00f6r. 2018 sonu) **sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131**yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. Bu nedenle, **VIX**\u2019e ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle **oynakl\u0131\u011fa yat\u0131r\u0131m** (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 veya korunma hedefi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in **VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu** almak, beklenen dalgal\u0131 seyire kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma y\u00f6ntemi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD\u2019de s\u00fcregelen i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 1,786 milyona \u00e7\u0131karak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. \u0130lk ba\u015fvurular 221 binle zirvede; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,6\u2019ya indi. Fed indirimi olas\u0131; tahvil, opsiyon ve VIX\u2019le korunma g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47586"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47586\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}