ABD\u2019de ki\u015fisel gelir Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda de\u011fi\u015fmedi ve %0 oldu. Bu oran, piyasa beklentisi olan %0,4\u2019\u00fcn 0,4 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veriler, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131nda gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n durdu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, piyasa beklentilerinin ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Nisan\u2019daki %0 ki\u015fisel gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa %0,4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f bekliyordu. Bu sapma, t\u00fcketicinin finansal durumunun beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 bozuldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, piyasay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan \u201ct\u00fcketici g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201d s\u00f6ylemini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f gelir verisi tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil. Nisan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta s\u00fcrpriz bi\u00e7imde %0,2 geriledi. Bu, harcamalar\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Son istihdam raporunda \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7\u2019ye indi. Bu da ekonomide so\u011fuman\u0131n belirginle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum Fed\u2019i (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) zor bir noktaya getiriyor. Fed son d\u00f6nemde, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri sabit tutma mesaj\u0131 veriyordu. Ancak bu veri, y\u0131l bitmeden faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Fed, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve t\u00fcketim verileri bozuldu\u011funda para politikas\u0131nda (faiz ve likidite politikas\u0131) y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor; \u015fu anda g\u00f6r\u00fclen de bu.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, faizler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak faiz t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerindeki (faiz hareketine ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. Buna, Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak da dahil. Ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. SOFR, ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizini ifade eden referans oran; bu kontratlar da piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131r. Bu ara\u00e7lar kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon) getiri imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik artarken piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n da y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. VIX endeksi, S&P 500 i\u00e7in ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir. VIX\u2019in 16 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlama gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak ve olas\u0131 sert oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici gelirindeki do\u011frudan darbe nedeniyle, zorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim hisselerinde (gelir artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ilk k\u0131s\u0131lan harcama grubu) zay\u0131fl\u0131k bekliyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fck perakende ve t\u00fcketici ETF\u2019leri (Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu: endeksi\/sepeti izleyen fon) \u00fczerine sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131yoruz. B\u00f6ylece, hane geliri durgunla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda en k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlayabiliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: ABD\u2019de ki\u015fisel gelir Nisan\u2019da %0\u2019da kald\u0131, beklenti %0,4. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcc\u00fc s\u00f6ylemi sars\u0131l\u0131yor; perakende sat\u0131\u015f\/\u00fccret zay\u0131f. Fed indirimi masada. Tahvil-VIX call, t\u00fcketimde put. Portf\u00f6y korunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47584"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47584\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}