ABD\u2019de ki\u015fisel harcamalar Nisan\u2019da %0,5 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f beklentilerle ayn\u0131 ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131nda hanehalk\u0131 talebinin istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Veri, t\u00fcketimin \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sa\u011flam kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek genel ekonomideki ivme i\u00e7in g\u00fcncel bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler, harcama art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 h\u0131zda s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyuyor. Bu, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011ferlendirilirken dikkate al\u0131nan arka plan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Aktivite tahminlerle uyumlu seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa beklentilerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi beklenmiyor; ancak t\u00fcketici davran\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki e\u011filimleri izleyen di\u011fer ABD g\u00f6stergeleriyle birlikte tabloyu tamaml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ki\u015fisel harcamalar\u0131n beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede ekonomik belirsizli\u011fin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc azalt\u0131yor. Bu durum, belirgin bir olumsuz s\u00fcrpriz olmad\u0131k\u00e7a piyasan\u0131n mevcut seyrini koruyabilece\u011fini ve oynakl\u0131kta (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddeti) sert bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, t\u00fcketicinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nma (talebin \u00e7ok h\u0131zlanmas\u0131) belirtisi g\u00f6stermedi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir teyit olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu istikrarl\u0131 veri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yaz boyunca faizlerde beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Son istihdam raporunda 175 bin net yeni istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken tempo bir miktar so\u011fusa da tablo h\u00e2l\u00e2 pozitif. Bu nedenle yak\u0131n vadede acil bir faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Fed funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasalar\u0131n Fed politika faizine ili\u015fkin beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 13 gibi tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor; bu veri endeksin y\u00fckselmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e sunmuyor. Bu ortamda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir: \u00d6rne\u011fin covered call (eldeki hisse\/ETF \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim geliri toplama) veya iron condor (fiyat\u0131n yatay kalmas\u0131na oynayan, d\u00f6rt opsiyonlu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda ise ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin dar bantta kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi son iki ayda %4,3\u2013%4,7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu harcama verisi de bu band\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert k\u0131r\u0131lma (band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket) beklemek yerine, tahvil vadeli i\u015flem opsiyonlar\u0131yla (\u00f6r. \/ZN: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil vadeli i\u015flemi) bu yatay hareketi de\u011ferlendirmeye y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik ortam, yava\u015f ama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin hisse senetlerinde kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015f (uzun s\u00fcreli, sert olmayan y\u00fckseli\u015f) getirdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. T\u00fcketiciyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlere odaklan\u0131yoruz; ancak temkinli duru\u015fu koruyoruz. T\u00fcketim \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (zorunlu t\u00fcketim) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan ETF\u2019lerde put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda prim toplama) istikrarl\u0131 harcama ortam\u0131nda gelir yaratmak i\u00e7in daha ihtiyatl\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu \u015firketler genelde talep dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de ki\u015fisel harcamalar Nisan\u2019da %0,5 artarak beklentiyi tutturdu: Talep ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe sa\u011flam girdi. Bu tablo Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d\u00fcn\u00fc, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX\u2019i ve tahvil getirilerinde dar bant senaryosunu destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47582\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}