ABD\u2019nin gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH: \u00fclkede \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmetlerin de\u011feri) ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f) bazda %1,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bu oran, piyasadaki %2 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Zay\u0131f veri, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin daha yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son tahmin, ekonominin h\u0131z\u0131na dair varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131nayan veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na bir halka daha ekledi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 etkileyecek. \u015eimdi g\u00f6zler, sonraki verilerin bunun ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fc yoksa daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir so\u011fuma e\u011filimi mi oldu\u011funu teyit edip etmeyece\u011finde.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte GSYH\u2019nin %1,6 ile zay\u0131f gelmesi, ekonominin beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funa dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu s\u00fcrpriz, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin duru\u015fu\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ya da y\u00fcksek faizi uzun s\u00fcre koruma e\u011filimi) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski, enflasyonun yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 riskine g\u00f6re daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, faiz beklentilerini do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131ndaki (Fed funds futures: Fed\u2019in politika faizine ili\u015fkin beklentilerin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) fiyatlamalara g\u00f6re eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %65\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisine oynamak i\u00e7in ABD Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019leri (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinden TLT gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde opsiyonlar (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131) ya da SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (teminatl\u0131 gecelik finansman oran\u0131na dayal\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz kontratlar\u0131) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131r; bu da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckselmesine zemin haz\u0131rlar. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 14 civar\u0131nda; bu, tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviye ve koruma almay\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getirir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cuzun oynakl\u0131k\u201d (oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyon) art\u0131r\u0131labilir ve S&P 500 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131narak korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme) sa\u011flanabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015firket k\u00e2r beklentilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edilmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 da faiz indirimi beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e zay\u0131flayabilir. Daha az agresif bir Fed, dolar\u0131, faiz indiriminde o kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 davranmayan di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin para birimlerine k\u0131yasla daha az cazip hale getirir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) \u00fczerinde vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyonlarla k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD GSYH ilk \u00e7eyrekte %1,6\u2019da kald\u0131, beklenti %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda. Fed\u2019de eyl\u00fcl indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %65+. Tahvil, uzun volatilite\/put ve DXY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47580\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}