BNP Paribas, ABD\u2019nin 2022\u2019den bu yana di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini (b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc), ekonomi enflasyon, para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faizlerin y\u00fckseltilmesi ve likiditenin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131) ve g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerine ra\u011fmen dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131ktan sonra, Yapay Zek\u00e2\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli katk\u0131s\u0131ndan ziyade daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verimlili\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Banka, bu ivmenin 2026 ve 2027\u2019ye uzamas\u0131n\u0131, verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ana motoru olmaya devam etmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Pandemiye ba\u011fl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir \u201cs\u0131\u00e7rama\u201d ve ard\u0131ndan gelen d\u00fczeltmeden sonra, saatlik i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlili\u011fi 2023-2025 d\u00f6neminde y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama %2,4 artt\u0131; bu oran 2014-2019\u2019da %1,3\u2019t\u00fc. Orta vadede Yapay Zek\u00e2\u2019n\u0131n, verimlilikteki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi bekleniyor; Yapay Zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 verimlilik (ayn\u0131 i\u015fi daha az kaynakla yapabilme) beklentilerinin mevcut yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc destekledi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Rapora g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de kurumlar, Yapay Zek\u00e2\u2019y\u0131 uzun vadeli GSYH (\u00fclkenin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 ama destekleyici bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisindeki s\u00fcregelen g\u00fcc\u00fcn, yaln\u0131zca Yapay Zek\u00e2 beklentilerine de\u011fil, somut verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, 2026 1. \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) son raporuyla da destekleniyor: Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 verimlilik (tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00fcretkenlik) y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131ll\u0131k h\u0131za \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) %2,1 oldu ve kal\u0131c\u0131 iyile\u015fme e\u011filimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu temel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha sa\u011flam oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Fed) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumunda tutabilir. CME FedWatch verileri, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesinde faiz ad\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %10\u2019un alt\u0131na indi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir faiz ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu istikrar, ani politika s\u00fcrprizi riskini azaltarak faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (faiz dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde i\u015fe yarayan stratejileri daha anlaml\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ABD hisselerinde spek\u00fclatif bir \u201cson sprint\u201d yerine, kademeli ve istikrarl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe g\u00f6re konumlanmak gerekir. Teknoloji g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da, genele yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sanayi ve iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (zorunlu olmayan harcamalara duyarl\u0131 \u015firketler) gibi geride kalm\u0131\u015f sekt\u00f6rleri destekliyor. Daha geni\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye maruz kalmak i\u00e7in XLI gibi sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; bir endeks\/sekt\u00f6r\u00fc izleyen fon) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) kullan\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n (earnings) piyasa de\u011ferlemeleriyle (hissenin fiyatlama d\u00fczeyi) uyumlu artmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130stikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve sab\u0131rl\u0131 Fed, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. VIX endeksi (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 13-16 band\u0131nda sakin seyretti; bunun yaz boyunca s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Bu durum, opsiyon primi satmay\u0131 (opsiyon yazarak gelir elde etmeyi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin teminatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (covered call; eldeki hisseye kar\u015f\u0131 call satmak) veya nakitle teminatland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sat\u0131m opsiyonu (cash-secured put; hisseyi alma g\u00fcc\u00fc kadar nakitle put satmak) gibi.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak bu tablo, 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonundaki verimlilik patlamas\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor: A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 enflasyon olmadan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmu\u015f, \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131 (bull market; uzun soluklu y\u00fckseli\u015f) beslemi\u015fti. Ancak dot-com d\u00f6neminden farkl\u0131 olarak, mevcut kazan\u0131mlar ekonominin geneline daha yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, yaln\u0131zca h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen teknoloji hisselerine yo\u011funla\u015fmak yerine S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f endekslerde (piyasan\u0131n genelini temsil eden sepet) pozisyon almak daha uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilere g\u00f6re bu \u00fcst\u00fcn performans, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutacakt\u0131r. Dolar endeksi (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde ve yak\u0131n zamanda 107\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00d6zellikle merkez bankalar\u0131 daha agresif gev\u015feme (faiz indirimleri) d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde olan para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131, vadeli i\u015flemler (futures; ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) veya opsiyonlarla (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) uzun dolar pozisyonu (dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na oynayan pozisyon) korunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fil: BNP Paribas, ivmenin yapay zek\u00e2dan \u00e7ok verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan beslendi\u011fini, 2026-27\u2019ye uzayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Fed bekle-g\u00f6r, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX, sekt\u00f6r rotasyonu ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47578\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}