Euro, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta geriledi. EUR\/USD paritesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 1,1600 \u00e7evresinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 piplik (d\u00f6vizde en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve 1,1575 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Jeopolitik risk i\u015ftah\u0131 belirledi: ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler, Tahran\u2019\u0131n K\u00f6rfez\u2019de bir ABD \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc vurdu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesi ve Kuveyt\u2019in f\u00fcze ile insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 (\u0130HA) engelledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, ate\u015fkesi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tuttu. Bu tablo, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Brent petrol, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 92 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 94 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da Euro \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 beklentileri ise denge unsuru. ECB Watch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re 11 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevduat faizinin (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan faiz) 25 baz puan (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131r\u0131larak %2,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %91. ABD\u2019de ise Nisan ay\u0131 Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 Fiyat Endeksi (PCE: Fed\u2019in en yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Piyasalar, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair teyit ar\u0131yor; bu da Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika (faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma ya da art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir. Teknik tarafta EUR\/USD 1,1610 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 1,1660 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketin zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye), 1,1575 ise destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olarak izleniyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1505-1,1525 band\u0131, yukar\u0131da ise 1,1720 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1790 hedef seviyeler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda EUR\/USD dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yakla\u015fan ABD PCE enflasyon verisi, bu band\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131rabilecek temel tetikleyici olabilir. Burada \u00f6nemli olan y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekete haz\u0131rlanmakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artmas\u0131ndan faydalanan opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n
Euro \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 belirgin. Bunun ana nedeni, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesiyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131. Bu durum, 2022\u2019deki enerji krizini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: O d\u00f6nemde Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat faturas\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmi\u015f, Euro dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pariteye (1 euro = 1 dolar) yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD\u2019nin enerji a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 tarihsel olarak dolar\u0131 euroya k\u0131yasla daha avantajl\u0131 k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Euro i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) taraf\u0131ndan olu\u015fturuluyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonuna ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc tahminler (ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan h\u0131zl\u0131 hesap) enflasyonun %2,6 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani bankan\u0131n %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da karar vericilerin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha sert, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n tutum) destekliyor. Piyasa, Haziran\u2019da ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %91 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da Euro\u2019nun daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fczden en uygun yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almak\u201d oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u201cUzun straddle\u201d stratejisi (ayn\u0131 vadede, ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak) bu noktada uygun bir kurgu. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1600\u2019e yak\u0131n se\u00e7ilir. Bu pozisyon, PCE verisi sonras\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019nin sert \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket ederek mevcut banttan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131k endekslerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da destek buluyor: Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck kriz d\u00f6nemlerindeki kadar de\u011fil. Bu da piyasan\u0131n tedirgin oldu\u011funu, fakat bu opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alman\u0131n maliyetinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 pahal\u0131 h\u00e2le gelmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6zetle, paritenin s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 1,1575-1,1660 kanal\u0131nda birikmi\u015f gerilimin sonunda k\u0131r\u0131lma yaratmas\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro\/dolar 1,1575-1,1660 band\u0131nda kilitlendi: Jeopolitik gerilimle Brent 94$ \u00fcst\u00fc euroyu bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasa ECB\u2019de %91 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD PCE\u2019yle Fed s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 izliyor; k\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47577","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47577"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47577\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}