Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) nisan ay\u0131 para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait tutanaklar, \u00fcyelerin enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatine vard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sona erdikten \u00e7ok sonra bile devam edebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u00dcyeler, mevcut d\u00f6nemi 2022\u2019deki tablodan farkl\u0131 olarak \u201cklasik bir olumsuz arz \u015foku\u201d (arz\u0131n bozulmas\u0131 nedeniyle maliyetlerin artmas\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi) \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirdi. Enerji fiyat \u015fokunun (enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f) hem b\u00fcy\u00fck hem de giderek daha kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu, daha geni\u015f fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na (genel enflasyon s\u00fcreci) yay\u0131lma riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi; etkisine dair daha fazla bilginin hazirana kadar netle\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda tutanaklarda, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cikinci tur etki\u201d (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve di\u011fer fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131yla kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair belirgin kan\u0131t\u0131n az oldu\u011fu ve t\u00fcketici taraf\u0131nda bu etkileri g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00f6nce \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtildi. Baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler faiz art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, di\u011ferleri para politikas\u0131nda ad\u0131m atmadan \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelme\/bak\u0131p ge\u00e7me\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n (ge\u00e7ici \u015foklara tepki vermeden bekleme) giderek daha az uygun hale geldi\u011fini savundu; karar\u0131n \u201ck\u0131l pay\u0131\u201d oldu\u011fu ifade edildi. Tutanaklarda ayr\u0131ca \u201c\u00e7\u0131palanman\u0131n bozulmas\u0131\u201d riskinin (enflasyon beklentilerinin hedef etraf\u0131nda sabit kalmamas\u0131) yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri yer ald\u0131; sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek kesin bir anla\u015fman\u0131n enflasyon risklerini h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirmesinin beklenmedi\u011fi belirtildi. Piyasalarda EUR\/USD 1,1600 seviyesinin biraz \u00fczerinde, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi.<\/p>\n
Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, enflasyon risklerinin daha kal\u0131c\u0131 hale geldi\u011fini kabul ediyor; bunun genel fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yay\u0131lma ihtimali y\u00fckseliyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc veriler (h\u0131zl\u0131 yay\u0131mlanan ilk enflasyon tahmini) Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani ECB hedefinin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u201cm\u00fczakere edilmi\u015f \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (sendikalar\/i\u015fverenler aras\u0131nda anla\u015fmayla belirlenen \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131) %4,2\u2019ye geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in ikinci tur etki riski art\u0131k daha belirgin bir endi\u015fe.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor; ECB\u2019nin mevcut duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 giderek zorla\u015f\u0131yor. 2022-2023 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde (faizleri art arda y\u00fckseltti\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7) de g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fi de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde ad\u0131m\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cfaiz swap\u201dlar\u0131nda (iki taraf\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6demek veya \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekler i\u00e7in Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisiyle fiyatlanan vadeli i\u015flem) satmak k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 beklemede kal\u0131rken kur piyasas\u0131nda da f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Euro g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle maruz kalmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak uygun bir strateji olabilir; b\u00f6ylece a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r. Parite \u015fu an 1,0950 civar\u0131ndayken, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in 1,1100 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi seviye) makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerin daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika (faiz\/likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bir sonraki karar yine \u201ck\u0131l pay\u0131\u201d olabilir; bu da piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Euro STOXX 50 Volatilite Endeksi (VSTOXX) 14 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlamak i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli hale getiriyor. Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Euro\u2019da veya b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa hisse endekslerinde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte; y\u00f6n de\u011fil, hareket beklentisi) almak bu belirsizlikten faydalanmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferli olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB tutanaklar\u0131 alarm veriyor: Enflasyonda yukar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 riskler art\u0131yor. Enerji \u015foku kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fabilir, beklenti \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131 bozulabilir. Haziran \u00f6ncesi \u201ck\u0131l pay\u0131\u201d faiz-art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali swap, Euribor, EUR\/USD ve VSTOXX\u2019ta opsiyon f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47576\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}