TD Securities, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131 tarihe ili\u015fkin beklentisini \u00f6ne \u00e7ekti. Kurum, Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019nda (OCR, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizi) ilk 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bps, y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131k eyl\u00fcl yerine temmuz i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Toplamda d\u00f6rt art\u0131\u015f beklentisini koruyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fiklik, RBNZ\u2019nin OCR\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131larda y\u00fckselmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte ayr\u0131ca daha zay\u0131f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve daha belirgin negatif \u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ekonominin kapasitesinin alt\u0131nda \u00fcretim yapmas\u0131) dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen patika, 4 adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; RBNZ\u2019nin kendi OCR patikas\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz projeksiyonu) da temmuzda ilk 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla uyumlu. Bankan\u0131n \u201cnominal n\u00f6tr faiz\u201d (ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne yava\u015flatan, enflasyon dahil nominal denge faizi) tahmini %3,50; bu seviye, faizlerin ne kadar y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine dair \u201ctavan\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Strateji duru\u015fu, tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselip fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde (yield sell-off, getirilerin sert y\u00fckselmesi) Yeni Zelanda faizlerinde \u201cal\u0131c\u0131\u201d tarafta olmak; yani swaplarda sabit faiz almak y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahmin temmuza \u00e7ekildi; \u00f6nceki beklenti eyl\u00fcld\u00fc. Merkez bankas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f olsa da \u201c\u00f6nleyici\u201d (enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmadan erken ad\u0131m atmak) davranmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde toplam d\u00f6rt adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklentisi korunuyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler de bu de\u011fi\u015fimi destekliyor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek enflasyonu %4,2 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti ve RBNZ\u2019nin hedef band\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %0,3 ile zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,8\u2019e gerilemesi, bankaya para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya (faiz art\u0131rarak finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rmak) ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Swap piyasas\u0131 (faiz takas\u0131 piyasas\u0131; sabit faiz\u2013de\u011fi\u015fken faiz de\u011fi\u015fiminin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) temmuz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da g\u00fcncellenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fle uyumlu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz RBNZ hamlesi kap\u0131da: TD Securities ilk 25 bp OCR art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 eyl\u00fclden temmuza \u00e7ekti. Enflasyon %4,2, i\u015fsizlik %3,8; toplam d\u00f6rt art\u0131\u015f, n\u00f6tr faiz %3,50 tavan. Yield sell-off\u2019ta NZ swaplar\u0131nda al\u0131m \u00f6neriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47574\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}