Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni May\u0131s\u2019ta beklentilere paralel geldi; man\u015fet endeks -19 oldu. <\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klama, \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n zay\u0131f havas\u0131n\u0131 korudu ve beklentilerden sapma g\u00f6stermedi; g\u00f6sterge negatif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. Piyasalar ve karar vericiler, de\u011fi\u015fmeyen sonucun hanehalk\u0131 g\u00fcveninin h\u00e2l\u00e2 zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti\u011fini de\u011ferlendirecek; anket, harcamalarda temkin ve genel talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde (ekonomideki toplam mal ve hizmet iste\u011fi) zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n
Son Euro B\u00f6lgesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni -19 ile piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyenin ayn\u0131s\u0131. S\u00fcrpriz olmamas\u0131, piyasada ani dalgalanma beklenmemesi anlam\u0131na geliyor; nitekim VSTOXX endeksi (Euro B\u00f6lgesi hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 14,5\u2019e gerileyerek dalgalanman\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Ana sonu\u00e7: t\u00fcketicilerdeki kal\u0131c\u0131 karamsarl\u0131k, yak\u0131n vadede \u201cyeni normal\u201d h\u00e2line gelmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) politika faizini (%2,75; ekonomiyi y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan temel faiz) art\u0131rmakta acele etmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) da son d\u00f6nemde %2,1\u2019e geriledi. Zay\u0131f t\u00fcketim, enflasyonu do\u011fal olarak yava\u015flatan bir etki yarat\u0131r; bu da ECB\u2019ye yaz aylar\u0131nda bekle-g\u00f6r i\u00e7in alan sa\u011flar. Bu nedenle Frankfurt\u2019tan (ECB) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na e\u011filimli) bir s\u00fcrpriz beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n
Euro Stoxx 50 gibi ana endekslerde, 4.850\u20135.000 band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm s\u00fcrerken, bu veri y\u00f6ns\u00fczl\u00fck ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri destekliyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan daha uzak; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) \u201ccall spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu fark pozisyonu; bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131larak kurulur) satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; bu, zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici hissiyat\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 hareketi bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak 2011\u20132012 benzeri d\u00f6nemlerde, t\u00fcketici karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funda, net bir olumlu tetikleyici ortaya \u00e7\u0131kana kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ralliler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131nda, t\u00fcketiciye ba\u011fl\u0131 (dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim, perakende vb.) hisselerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u201ct\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler\u201d (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan opsiyon\/vadeli i\u015flem gibi ara\u00e7lar) ile ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131; temel t\u00fcketim (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek, temizlik vb.) taraf\u0131nda ise harcama k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in n\u00f6tr kalmay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz. Zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn teyidi, Euro\u2019nun daha zay\u0131f seyri i\u00e7in arg\u00fcman\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. EUR\/USD\u2019de \u201cput\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla burada para politikas\u0131n\u0131n daha gev\u015fek kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir koruma (hedge) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro B\u00f6lgesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni May\u0131s\u2019ta -19\u2019da kald\u0131: karamsarl\u0131k \u201cyeni normal\u201d. S\u00fcrpriz olmay\u0131nca oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ECB\u2019nin acele faiz art\u0131rmamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Hissede yatay, euroda zay\u0131fl\u0131k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47572","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47572"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47572\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}