Euro, haftal\u0131k dip seviyelerinden toparland\u0131 ancak Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ekside kald\u0131. EUR\/USD, 1,1586\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1600\u2019in yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na dair haberler risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Tahran, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de bir ABD \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc vurdu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken, Kuveyt de f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131lar\u0131n (\u0130HA\/drone) engellendi\u011fini bildirdi. Artan gerilim H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) aksama riskini g\u00fcndemde tuttu ve Brent petrol\u00fc 94 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; Brent, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 92 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli hareketin \u00f6tesinde parite yatay bantta kald\u0131; piyasa Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/para ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ECB Watch Tool, 11 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Mevduat Faizi\u2019nin (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 fazla rezervlere uygulanan faiz) 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) artarak %2,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %91 olarak g\u00f6sterdi. ABD\u2019de ise odak, Nisan PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u00e7evrildi; ayr\u0131ca Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri (uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcnlere talep) ve haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 izlenecek. Teknik tarafta EUR\/USD 1,1610 civar\u0131nda, 1,1575\u20131,1660 aras\u0131ndaki 80 piplik (d\u00f6vizde standart k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; EUR\/USD\u2019de 1 pip = 0,0001) bant i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) orta \u00e7izginin alt\u0131nda, MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama; trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) ise hafif negatifti. 1,1575 alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 1,1505\u20131,1525 b\u00f6lgesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; 1,1660 \u00fczerine hareket ise 1,1720 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1790 seviyelerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019da artan gerilim petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iterken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 daha temkinli hale getiriyor; bu da Euro\u2019yu k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor. Bu \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) e\u011filimi, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX; piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\/korku g\u00f6stergesi) ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 15 seviyesinden 19\u2019un \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmesi, artan tedirginli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 Euro i\u00e7in belirgin bir olumsuz fakt\u00f6r. Euro B\u00f6lgesi net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ABD\u2019den daha hassas. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte enerji maliyetlerinin h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler (\u00f6rne\u011fin 2022\u2019deki \u015fok) Avrupa\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f ve para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Euro, 11 Haziran\u2019da ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisinden destek buluyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verileri, Nisan\u2019da t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, bankan\u0131n ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek Euro\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise ge\u00e7en haftaki PCE verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %2,9 ile beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma) korumas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu kar\u015f\u0131t bask\u0131, EUR\/USD\u2019nin mevcut bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131nda etkili.<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131t etkenler nedeniyle, paritenin yatay kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyonlarda (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini varsayarak prim toplama) amac\u0131yla, 1,1575\u20131,1660 band\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla \u201ciron condor\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p, daha d\u0131\u015f seviyelerden koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon almak; bantta kal\u0131rsa prim geliri hedefler) gibi stratejiler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015fe yarayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ne ECB\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funun (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n tutum) ne de jeopolitik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yarataca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku ve \u0130ran gerilimi Euro\u2019yu bask\u0131lad\u0131: EUR\/USD haftal\u0131k dipten toparlansa da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ECB\u2019de 25 bp art\u0131\u015f %91 fiyatlan\u0131rken g\u00f6zler ABD PCE\u2019de; parite 1,1575\u20131,1660 band\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47569\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}