Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparland\u0131 ancak 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: fiyatlar\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131; trendi g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) alt\u0131na indikten sonra Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019da yeniden artan gerilim ve k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya\/ art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir \u00e7izgiye kayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle geldi. Bu tablo, getiri sa\u011flamayan alt\u0131n gibi varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde genelde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) etraf\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar jeopolitik risk primini (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) y\u00fcksek tutarken, k\u0131sa vadede diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm umudu zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol, \u00fc\u00e7 haftay\u0131 a\u015fan dipten toparland\u0131. Bu durum enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini (piyasalar\u0131n faizlerin y\u00fckselece\u011fini fiyatlamas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. CME FedWatch g\u00f6stergesine g\u00f6re piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in 25 baz puan (bps: faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,25\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim) art\u0131\u015f yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50, Ocak 2027\u2019de art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini ise %60 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin (tahvil faizi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyri de dolar\u0131 destekliyor. G\u00f6zler, \u00f6nc\u00fc 1. \u00e7eyrek ABD GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck) ve Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 500 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir kanal i\u00e7inde; RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 35 civar\u0131nda ve MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend\/momentum \u00f6l\u00e7er) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Destek 4.311,11 dolarda, diren\u00e7 4.480 dolarda; sonras\u0131nda 4.625-4.630 band\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu nedeniyle, alt\u0131ndaki son toparlanmay\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde ge\u00e7ici bir tepki olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan Nisan \u00c7ekirdek PCE verisi (\u00e7ekirdek: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7), enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da Fed\u2019in duru\u015funu yumu\u015fatmak i\u00e7in alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ya da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) y\u00fckselmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fcvenli liman (kriz d\u00f6neminde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak dolar\u0131n ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor ve alt\u0131n i\u00e7in belirgin bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. 26 May\u0131s tarihli, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda deniz devriyelerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da sermayenin ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesini (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fla ABD\u2019ye ak\u0131\u015f) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. Bu tablo, jeopolitik riskin alt\u0131na her zamanki deste\u011fi vermemesi nedeniyle alt\u0131ndaki \u201cuzun\u201d (long: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi beklentisiyle pozisyon) pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmam\u0131za neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri 4,85\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, getiri sa\u011flamayan alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti (alternatif getiri kayb\u0131) olduk\u00e7a y\u00fckseldi. CME FedWatch\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, 2026 i\u00e7in faiz indiriminin g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc beklentimizle uyumlu. Bu ortam alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutabilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6n beklentisine dayal\u0131 i\u015flemler i\u00e7in, 4.350 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) sat\u0131m (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; hedef, kanal deste\u011fi olan 4.311 seviyesi. Alternatif olarak, 4.500 direncinin \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (OTM: fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda; \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan) al\u0131m (call) spread satmak (spread: iki opsiyonun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, riskin s\u0131n\u0131rlanabildi\u011fi yap\u0131) prim (premium: opsiyon fiyat\u0131) toplamak i\u00e7in uygun olabilir ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle uyumludur. Bu strateji, fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden ve zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden (time decay: vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH ve PCE verileri \u00e7evresinde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ: alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 19,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, piyasadaki tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan ancak sert bir hareket bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) veya strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) alarak k\u0131r\u0131lmadan (breakout: \u00f6nemli seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla yeni hareket) faydalanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 4.480 seviyesi kritik e\u015fik. Bu yatay direncin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve short squeeze (a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f yapanlar\u0131n zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in al\u0131ma d\u00f6nmesiyle h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) riskini art\u0131rabilir. Bu seviyeyi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 kapat\u0131p piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in sinyal olarak kullan\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik alarm: XAU\/USD 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA alt\u0131nda 4.400\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, \u015fahin Fed ve y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri bask\u0131l\u0131yor. 4.311 destek, 4.480 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa short squeeze riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47567"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47567\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}