NZD\/USD paritesi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5885\u2019e geriledi. Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden ba\u015flayan hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle \u201cyumu\u015fama\u201d (gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) beklentilerinin bozulmas\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD ordusu gece boyunca \u0130ran\u2019da bir askeri tesisi hedef alan yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda tehdit olu\u015fturdu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilen d\u00f6rt adet \u201ctek y\u00f6nl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131 \u0130HA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131\u201d (geri d\u00f6nmeyen, hedefe dal\u0131\u015f yapan insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran ise ABD\u2019nin \u00fclkeye ait t\u00fcm fonlar\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden talep ederek, bu varl\u0131klar\u0131n \u0130ran halk\u0131na ait oldu\u011funu belirtti ve \u201ctam ve ko\u015fulsuz\u201d iade istedi.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (Official Cash Rate: bankalar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen ana faiz) %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu. Karar kurulda e\u015fit b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeye yol a\u00e7t\u0131: \u00dc\u00e7 \u00fcye faizde 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f isterken \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Bankan\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmesi, \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma\u201dya (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na) kap\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131raksa da bunun gelecek verilere, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ve risk dengesine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 da bu nedenle de\u011fi\u015fti; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar art\u0131k 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar birden fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki yeni hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde ana belirleyici unsurun bu olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu t\u00fcr g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 genelde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir ve NZD\/USD \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Cboe FX Volatility Indexes (d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeksler) bu hafta %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n normalden daha sert fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n RBNZ\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) duru\u015fu g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. Ge\u00e7en ay t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (CPI: fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en veri) man\u015fet bazda %3,1\u2019de kalmaya devam etti; bu, enflasyonun \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n tutumunu destekliyor. Overnight index swap (OIS: piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki politika faizi beklentisini yans\u0131tan faiz takas\u0131) fiyatlamalar\u0131, \u015eubat 2027\u2019ye kadar toplam 75 baz puanl\u0131k RBNZ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Jeopolitik endi\u015feler azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu beklenti Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131na destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t kuvvetler nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n ana temas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Belirsizlikten faydalanmak i\u00e7in, bir ayl\u0131k NZD\/USD \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fini tahmin etmeden b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan strateji) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. B\u00f6ylece askeri gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ya da ani yumu\u015fama fark etmeksizin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanma ama\u00e7lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bakanlar i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan \u201cput\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak yerine \u201cput spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) daha uygun olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve pe\u015fin maliyeti azalt\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc beklenmedik bir bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 \u00e7evirebilir. Tarihsel olarak benzer riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde emtia para birimlerinde (ihracat\u0131 emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimleri) sert ama \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr, sonras\u0131nda temel dinamikler yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik risk \u015foku NZD\/USD\u2019yi vurdu: Parite 0,5885\u2019e gerilerken ABD-\u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 dolar talebini art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6te yandan RBNZ\u2019de b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f ama \u015fahin duru\u015f, 2027\u2019ye dek 75 bp art\u0131\u015f beklentisiyle NZD\u2019ye potansiyel destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47561"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47561\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}