BNY\u2019nin analizine g\u00f6re Kanada dolar\u0131 (CAD) hareketlerini, ABD\u2019deki \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcden farkl\u0131 olan portf\u00f6y yeniden dengeleme ak\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiriyor; ay sonu dinamikleri k\u0131sa vadede destek sa\u011flayabilir. Bankan\u0131n verileri, USD\/CAD kur riskinden korunma i\u015flemlerinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinin \u2014 ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak CAD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yap\u0131lan vadeli dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (forward USD sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u2014 son d\u00f6nemdeki dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 verdi\u011fini, ancak bunun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (mean reversion: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketten sonra daha normal seviyelere geri gelme) ile geri al\u0131nabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hisse senedi kaynakl\u0131 yeniden dengeleme sinyali yaln\u0131zca CAD taraf\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimleri ise bu kez CAD lehine i\u015faret veriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda banka, tahvil getirilerinde e\u011fimin artmas\u0131n\u0131 (steepening: uzun vadeli faizlerin k\u0131sa vadeye g\u00f6re daha fazla y\u00fckselmesi ve getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesi) ek bir etken olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu durum CAD\u2019in zay\u0131f performans\u0131yla birle\u015fince al\u0131m sinyallerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. USD ve CAD i\u00e7in net sat\u0131\u015f ve net al\u0131m sinyallerinin birbirini tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor; ancak USD sinyalinin \u00e7ok daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc zay\u0131f tahvil performans\u0131n\u0131n dolar al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. CAD talebi ise benzer bir dikle\u015fme ortam\u0131yla destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131n\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken, Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli rahatlama sinyalleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ay sonu portf\u00f6y yeniden dengelemesi, para birimine destek veren bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratabilir. Bu da, CAD\u2019deki son zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u2014 USD\/CAD\u2019nin bu ay ba\u015f\u0131nda 1,3780\u2019i g\u00f6rmesinin \u2014 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine durabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Temel etken, ABD ve Kanada hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki performans fark\u0131. May\u0131s\u2019ta S&P 500 %4,5 y\u00fckselirken Kanada\u2019n\u0131n S&P\/TSX Composite endeksi yaln\u0131zca %1,2 artabildi. Bu fark nedeniyle k\u00fcresel varl\u0131k y\u00f6neticilerinin hedef da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131na d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in ABD dolar\u0131 sat\u0131p Kanada dolar\u0131 almalar\u0131 gerekebilir. Bu otomatik ak\u0131m, \u201cloonie\u201d (Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n piyasa takma ad\u0131) i\u00e7in talep yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu al\u0131m sinyali tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki hareketlerle de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Kanada 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi son bir ayda 30 baz puan (0,30 y\u00fczde puan) artarak %3,85\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da e\u011friyi dikle\u015ftiren ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sermaye \u00e7eken bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yarat\u0131r. Kurun bug\u00fcne kadarki zay\u0131f seyri, k\u0131sa vadeli teknik tepki (technical rebound: haberden \u00e7ok fiyat hareketine dayal\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanma) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan CAD al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011feri kur\/ faiz gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1-2 haftada daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc CAD\u2019den faydalanan stratejileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. CAD \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ya da USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) kurun 1,3600 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi ihtimalini de\u011ferlendirebilir. Yak\u0131n vadeli val\u00f6r (settlement: i\u015flemin nakit\/teslimatla sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarih) i\u00e7in USD\/CAD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde dolar satmak da bu beklenen ak\u0131ma pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir ba\u015fka yol.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re CAD\u2019i ABD\u2019den ayr\u0131\u015fan yeniden dengeleme ak\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Ay sonu al\u0131mlar\u0131, hedging \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenen USD\u2019yi t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyip USD\/CAD\u2019yi 1,3600\u2019e \u00e7ekebilir; e\u011fri dikle\u015fmesi CAD\u2019i destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47553"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47553\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}