USD\/CAD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.3810\u20131.3815 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir seviyeyi yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7mesi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckseldi. Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1.3870 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren parite, 13 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Hareketin ana deste\u011fi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki yeni geli\u015fmelerin \u0130ran krizine k\u0131sa vadede diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) bozulmas\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen para birimi) talebinin artmas\u0131 oldu. Ek destek, piyasalar\u0131n 2026\u2019da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatlamas\u0131ndan geldi. Bu arada ham petrol toparlansa da (normalde Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyen bir unsur) y\u00fckseli\u015f korunabildi.<\/p>\n
Grafik taraf\u0131nda parite, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (son 200 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) ve Nisan\u2013May\u0131s d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn %61,8 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin (olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik seviye) \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korudu. Ancak 1.3875 civar\u0131ndaki %78,6 seviyesinde duraksad\u0131. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en ara\u00e7lar) kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k: RSI\u2019nin (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; 70\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131 \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d, yani k\u0131sa vadede yorulma riski) 70\u2019e yak\u0131n olmas\u0131 bu riske i\u015faret ederken, MACD (iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki fark; pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalmas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret eder) pozitif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. 1.3875 \u00fczeri bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1.3963 seviyesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Destekler 1.3810, ard\u0131ndan 1.3758 ve 1.3709; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise 1.3649 ve 1.3552 izleniyor. Orijinal teknik analiz, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019de belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme (y\u00fckseli\u015fin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Parite 1.3810 b\u00f6lgesini a\u015ft\u0131 ve 1.3870 civar\u0131nda, bir aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca etkenler, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim nedeniyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6neli\u015f ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin de\u011fi\u015fmesi. Piyasa, 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in yeniden faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha ciddi fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na meyilli) Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, ABD\u2019de Nisan enflasyonunun beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelerek %3,8\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve son istihdam verisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam ile \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmesiyle destekleniyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131 (gelecekteki fiyat beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) Fed\u2019in Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu durum Kanada ile keskin bir z\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fturuyor; Kanada\u2019da enflasyonun daha y\u00f6netilebilir bir d\u00fczey olan %2,7\u2019de sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131rma ihtimali olan Fed ile \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d (faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme e\u011filimi) Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. WTI ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131na y\u00fckselse bile, bunun Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olumlu etkisi zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemler, 2022\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Kanada Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcre g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar tetikte: USD\/CAD 1.3810 \u00fcst\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmayla 1.3870\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. Jeopolitik risk dolar talebini art\u0131r\u0131rken, 2026 Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. 1.3875 direnci kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47552\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}