Reuters, Tasnim Haber Ajans\u0131\u2019na dayand\u0131rarak Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun (Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\/IRGC) Bandar Abbas Havaliman\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019ye ait bir hava \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini bildirdi. IRGC ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u201cdaha kararl\u0131\u201d bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6rece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n sorumlulu\u011funun Washington\u2019a ait olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Haberin ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) zay\u0131flad\u0131; ABD S&P vadeli i\u015flemleri (endeks \u00fczerine yap\u0131lan ileri tarihli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 99,50\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. WTI tipi ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) 91 dolara do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131 ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %2,35 art\u0131da seyrediyordu.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalarda dalgalanman\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) artaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren ve \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d diye bilinen g\u00f6sterge) %25\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 19,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki bankac\u0131l\u0131k sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu tablo, geni\u015f piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem) i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) tercih edilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrolde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolara do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fclen ilk sert hareket, gerilim s\u00fcrerse devam edebilir. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA: ABD enerji verilerini yay\u0131mlayan resmi kurum) son verileriyle de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 3,1 milyon varil azald\u0131; bu, analistlerin bekledi\u011fi 1,5 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften daha y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (long call: al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131n alma) pozisyonlar\u0131yla, 100 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse endekslerinde, bu jeopolitik bask\u0131n\u0131n kazanan ve kaybedenleri belirginle\u015ftirmesini bekliyoruz. \u00d6n piyasa i\u015flemlerinde %2,5 gerileyen havayolu ETF\u2019leri (borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu; belirli sekt\u00f6r\u00fc takip eden fon) i\u00e7inde JETS gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc artan yak\u0131t maliyetleri k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan bask\u0131lar. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k savunma ve enerji sekt\u00f6rlerinin daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz; b\u00fcy\u00fck savunma ve enerji \u015firketlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: IRGC\u2019nin ABD \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. DXY 99,50\u2019ye y\u00f6neldi, WTI 91 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, VIX 19,5\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Hedge ve opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47548\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}