{"id":47547,"date":"2026-05-28T07:26:52","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T07:26:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/iranin-hurmuz-yetkilisine-yonelik-abd-yaptirimlari-petrol-volatilitesi-sicrarken-wtii-90-dolara-yaklastirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-28T07:26:52","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T07:26:52","slug":"iranin-hurmuz-yetkilisine-yonelik-abd-yaptirimlari-petrol-volatilitesi-sicrarken-wtii-90-dolara-yaklastirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/iranin-hurmuz-yetkilisine-yonelik-abd-yaptirimlari-petrol-volatilitesi-sicrarken-wtii-90-dolara-yaklastirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz yetkilisine y\u00f6nelik ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, petrol volatilitesi s\u0131\u00e7rarken WTI\u2019\u0131 90 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015f taleplerini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in kurdu\u011fu Basra K\u00f6rfezi Bo\u011faz Otoritesi\u2019ne yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulad\u0131. Hazine, bu otoriteyle i\u015f birli\u011fi yapan taraflar\u0131n \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019na (\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc askeri-g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131) destek veriyor ve ondan hizmet al\u0131yor olabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; bu taraflar da yapt\u0131r\u0131m riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. \u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bo\u011faz\u0131 kapatt\u0131. Otorite ise ge\u00e7en hafta, dar ge\u00e7it \u00e7evresindeki geni\u015f bir deniz alan\u0131 \u00fczerinde Tahran\u2019\u0131n hak iddialar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden vurgulayan bir harita yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nlemlerin ard\u0131ndan petrol piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. WTI y\u00fczde 1,6 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 89,80 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. WTI (West Texas Intermediate), ABD kaynakl\u0131 hafif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc (daha kolay rafine edilebilen) ham petrol i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan temel g\u00f6sterge fiyatt\u0131r; fiziksel teslimatlar Cushing (Oklahoma) depolama ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m merkezine g\u00f6re yap\u0131l\u0131r. Fiyat\u0131 arz-talep dengesi kadar, ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 bozan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar da belirler. Dolar hareketleri de \u00f6nemlidir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol ABD dolar\u0131yla fiyatlan\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (API) ve ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) stok verileri beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir; bu iki kurumun a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakamlar \u00e7o\u011fu zaman birbirine yak\u0131nd\u0131r. OPEC\u2019in (12 \u00fcye \u00fclkenin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u00fcretici grup) \u00fcretim politikas\u0131 ile OPEC+ (OPEC\u2019e ek olarak OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 10 \u00fclkenin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha geni\u015f grup) kararlar\u0131 da fiyatlar\u0131 etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n

Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n Sertle\u015fmesi ve Artan Oynakl\u0131k<\/h3>\n

Yeni \u0130ran otoritesine y\u00f6nelik ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor; WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bunun k\u0131sa vadede tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekten \u00e7ok belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki beklenen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki dalgalanma beklentisi) OVX endeksiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor; OVX, 52 haftan\u0131n (son 1 y\u0131l\u0131n) en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu da piyasan\u0131n s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya dair endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Arz \u015eoku ve \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma Ortam\u0131nda \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Temel sorun, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131; bu durum 28 \u015eubat\u2019taki sava\u015f ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyordu. EIA\u2019n\u0131n son verileri, k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n beklenenden \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu temel arz \u015foku (piyasaya giren petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131n ani ve b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc) fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutan ana etken ve piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Petrol fiyat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iki olas\u0131 senaryo \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: sert bir askeri t\u0131rmanma ya da aniden bir ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131. Al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n almak, fiyat\u0131n 100 dolara do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7rama ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon sa\u011flar. Sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ise bir anla\u015fma haberiyle fiyat\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunar.<\/p>\n

Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, ne beklenebilece\u011fine dair yol g\u00f6sterir. 1980\u2019lerdeki Tanker Sava\u015f\u0131 ve 1990\u2019daki K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda petrol piyasas\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli ve sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Benzer bir tablonun tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu nedenle i\u015flem stratejilerinin belirli bir y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmeye odaklanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi t\u0131rman\u0131yor: ABD, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bo\u011faz Otoritesi\u2019ni yapt\u0131r\u0131ma ald\u0131. Bo\u011faz \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r kapal\u0131; arz \u015foku WTI\u2019\u0131 90 dolara itti, OVX zirveye yak\u0131n. Piyasa opsiyonlarla hedge ar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47547\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}