Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3400 seviyesine do\u011fru geriledi. Dolar talebi, ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Nisan PCE Fiyat Endeksi (hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) \u00f6ncesindeki temkinli hava ile desteklendi. Reuters, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019da, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri ile ticari deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etti\u011fi belirtilen bir noktay\u0131 hedef alan yeni askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Washington ise ad\u0131m\u0131 \u201c\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc ve savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131\u201d diye tan\u0131mlayarak ate\u015fkesi korumay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek bir anla\u015fma istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve \u201cAra se\u00e7imleri umursam\u0131yorum\u201d dedi. Jeopolitik risk s\u00fcrerken GBP\/USD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artt\u0131. Piyasalar, \u0130ngiltere para politikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatl\u0131yor: Daha zay\u0131f enflasyon verileri sonras\u0131 \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri azald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Nisan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde %5,0\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi ve siyasi endi\u015felerin hafiflemesi de etkili oldu. Pantheon Macroeconomics, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2026 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n sonuna k\u0131yasla bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Kurum ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiliz devlet tahvili (gilt) getirilerinin (tahvil faizi) 2023 sonundan bu yana en sert haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti\u011fini; bunun da petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme, Sir Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revden al\u0131nma ihtimalinin bahis piyasalar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n mevcut mali kurallara (b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini \u00e7er\u00e7evesi) ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k mesaj\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nde zay\u0131flama g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; GBP\/USD paritesi 1,2500 civar\u0131nda tutunmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Nisan PCE Fiyat Endeksi var.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde dolar genelde g\u00fc\u00e7lenir; bu, \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclenlere ge\u00e7i\u015f) davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sonucudur. Benzer bir tablo, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6nemlerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, artan dalgalanma (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta oynamas\u0131) ortam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131na oynar.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki PCE enflasyon verisi kritik. \u201c\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon\u201dun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde, yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyonun beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelmesi, Fed\u2019in \u201cfaizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma\u201d duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Bu da dolar\u0131n Sterlin gibi para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda veriler BoE g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirdi. Man\u015fet enflasyon %2,3\u2019e inse de hizmet enflasyonu (hizmet fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrediyor. Son i\u015fsizlik verileri de %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu tablo BoE\u2019yi zorlayarak olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerinin (politika faizinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi) \u00f6telenmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bunun sonucu olarak piyasan\u0131n 2026 i\u00e7in BoE faiz indirimi beklentileri son bir ayda belirgin \u015fekilde azald\u0131. \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili getirileri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131n seyrini yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesiyle daha oynak hale geldi. Bu belirsizlik Sterlin i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 BoE\u2019nin daha temkinli kalmas\u0131, GBP\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini art\u0131rabilir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 1,2450 ve 1,2400 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 GBP\/USD \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, maliyeti ba\u015ftan belli bir \u015fekilde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin, Asya\u2019da 1,3400\u2019a gerilerken ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi dolara g\u00fcvenli liman deste\u011fi verdi. G\u00f6zler PCE\u2019de. BoE faiz beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131, gilt getirileri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; GBP\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47542"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47542\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}