AUD\/USD \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7130 civar\u0131nda seyrederken \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclen haftal\u0131k dip seviyenin hemen \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Avustralya dolar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasalar Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edece\u011fi beklentisini azalt\u0131rken ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon geriledi: Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda marttaki %4,6\u2019dan %4,2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu tabloya, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve istihdamdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gibi zay\u0131f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri de eklendi. Sonu\u00e7 olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, haziranda RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini neredeyse tamamen fiyatlamaktan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler de ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda bir askeri tesisin hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, ayr\u0131ca ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u0130ran insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparland\u0131; bu da enflasyon endi\u015felerini besleyerek ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re aral\u0131kta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131, ocak i\u00e7inse %60 seviyesinde fiyatlama g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu ortam, piyasalar ABD \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la) ve PCE Fiyat Endeksi verilerini beklerken, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) haftan\u0131n yeni zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ana belirleyici, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: RBA bekle-g\u00f6r modundayken ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131rmaktan veya faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaktan yana, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) koruyor. Bu temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, parite i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler de bunu teyit ediyor. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8 geldi; bu, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma d\u00f6neminin (s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bitti\u011fi fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu da bankan\u0131n yeni faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de tablo daha farkl\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de ge\u00e7en haftaki \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakan enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve %2 hedefinin inatla \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu nedenle CME FedWatch arac\u0131, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar en az bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puanl\u0131k) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019e yak\u0131n g\u00f6steriyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin s\u00fcrmesi de ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda talep g\u00f6ren para birimi) \u00f6zelli\u011fini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, AUD\/USD\u2019de \u201czarar durdurma riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u201d bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz. Put opsiyonu, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 verir; b\u00f6ylece kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler. Hedef olarak 0,7000\u2019deki psikolojik seviyeye yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131, tema i\u00e7in zaman tan\u0131mak ad\u0131na temmuz-a\u011fustos vadeleriyle izlenebilir. Bu strateji, beklenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlan\u0131rken riski \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) kademeli y\u00fckseliyor. Bu, uzun opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirir; ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi ihtimalinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet i\u00e7in \u201cay\u0131 put spreadi\u201d de de\u011ferlendirilebilir: \u00d6rne\u011fin 0,7100 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir put almak ve 0,6950 gibi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir put satmak. Bu yap\u0131, ba\u015ftaki \u00f6denen primi azalt\u0131r; kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda elde edilebilecek maksimum kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Bu negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in ana risk, Avustralya\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak istihdam veya d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi. B\u00f6yle bir durumda RBA daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir de\u011ferlendirmeye (daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n) y\u00f6nelebilir ve kur \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta d\u00fc\u015ferken 0,7130\u2019da tutunuyor: Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon ve istihdam zay\u0131f, RBA art\u0131\u015f beklentisi s\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Jeopolitik riskler Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutup dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47538"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47538\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}