Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) nisan sonu ve may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda piyasaya m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde harcama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildiriliyor. Bu m\u00fcdahale USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160,00 seviyesinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p 156,00\u2019ya do\u011fru \u00e7ekti. Parite daha sonra kademeli bi\u00e7imde yeniden y\u00fckselerek 159,50 civar\u0131na geldi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019ini geri ald\u0131. Ana belirleyici unsur faiz fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizini %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutarken BoJ %0,75 seviyesinde; bu da dolar lehine yakla\u015f\u0131k 300 baz puanl\u0131k (1 baz puan = %0,01) \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi\u201d (carry: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminde bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7) anlam\u0131na geliyor. Nisan ay\u0131 Tokyo T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) verisi zay\u0131flad\u0131; \u201c\u00e7ekirdek-\u00e7ekirdek\u201d (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemlerin daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015flayan, alttaki e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,9\u2019a gerileyerek %2,3 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu da k\u0131sa vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6teledi.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/JPY 50 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: fiyata daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) bulundu\u011fu 158,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 200 EMA ise 155,50 civar\u0131nda. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI (RSI\u2019\u0131n stokastik versiyonu: momentumu ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgelerini izler) y\u00fckseliyor, ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmi\u015f de\u011fil. S\u0131radaki piyasa tetikleyicileri 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu; \u00e7ekirdek: oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da) verisi; ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 bekleniyor. Bunu 23:30 GMT\u2019de Tokyo T\u00dcFE izleyecek; taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,5 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 160,00 \u00fczerine bir hareket Tokyo\u2019nun olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirirken, geri \u00e7ekilme 158,50\u2019yi test edebilir.<\/p>\n
BoJ ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay bir miktar zaman kazand\u0131. Toplam\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 trilyon yen oldu\u011fu belirtilen m\u00fcdahale, USD\/JPY\u2019yi hassas 160,00 b\u00f6lgesinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; ancak kur yeniden 159,50 civar\u0131nda. Piyasada, m\u00fcdahale s\u0131ras\u0131nda pozisyon kapatmak zorunda kalan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayn\u0131 i\u015flemleri yeniden kurdu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir ak\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
Bu toparlanman\u0131n temel nedeni de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil. Fed faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,25\u2019teyken BoJ neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n %0,25 d\u00fczeyinde. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131 kapanmad\u0131k\u00e7a, Tokyo\u2019nun m\u00fcdahalesi kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi de\u011fil, sadece zaman kazand\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n dengesi giderek zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Son veriler de bunu desteklemiyor; Nisan 2026\u2019ya ait Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %1,8 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu zay\u0131f veri, yeni art\u0131\u015flarla yeni destek verilmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle geri \u00e7ekilmeleri 158,00\u2019e do\u011fru al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. 160,00 \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, faiz fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 i\u015flemlerin yeniden belirleyici oldu\u011funu ve Tokyo\u2019nun yeniden ad\u0131m atmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterecektir. Ancak ABD enflasyonunun beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Japonya enflasyonunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi halinde bu tablo de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
60+ milyar $\u2019l\u0131k Japon m\u00fcdahalesi USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160\u2019tan 156\u2019ya \u00e7ekti; kur 159,5\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 300 bp faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019i besliyor. G\u00f6zler ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE, Tokyo T\u00dcFE.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47534\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}