Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (API) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haftal\u0131k ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 son veride art\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 22 May\u0131s\u2019ta biten haftada stok de\u011fi\u015fimi, \u00f6nceki haftadaki 9,1 milyon varillik azal\u0131\u015ftan (stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi: stoklar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi) 2,8 milyon varillik azal\u0131\u015fa geriledi.<\/p>\n
Veriler, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde stoklar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar, ay ilerledik\u00e7e 2,8 milyon varillik stok azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha geni\u015f arz-talep g\u00f6stergeleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131racak.<\/p>\n
Son ham petrol stok raporu, bir \u00f6nceki haftaya g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yava\u015flama, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6nce san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha az \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d (arz\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131) olabilece\u011fini, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finin s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tabloyu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesinin zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 84 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, bu stok haberi olas\u0131 bir fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: risk azaltma) f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Uzun (long: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in Temmuz vadeli 80\u201382 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) sat\u0131m (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ya da fiyat\u0131n yatay kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n
Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) yaz sezonu \u00f6ncesindeki \u00e7eli\u015fkili veriler sindirilirken artmas\u0131 muhtemel. Anma G\u00fcn\u00fc (Memorial Day) tatili geride kal\u0131rken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 9,2 milyon varillik erken benzin talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; ancak belirgin bir fiyat rallisini (h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) tetiklemedi. Beklenen oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelir elde etmek i\u00e7in mevcut varl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00fczerine \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan hemen kazanca ge\u00e7meyen) al\u0131m (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik opsiyon) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 satmak (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: prim geliri elde etme) daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, stok azal\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n bu \u015fekilde sert yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde (9,1 milyondan 2,8 milyona gerileme gibi) piyasa \u00e7o\u011fu kez konsolidasyon (fiyat\u0131n bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme (geri \u00e7ekilme) ya\u015far. Bu haftaki resmi EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) raporu da e\u011filimi teyit etti: Stoklarda yaln\u0131zca 2,5 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bildirildi ve analist beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu teyit, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
API verisi ham petrol stok \u00e7ekili\u015finin 9,1 milyondan 2,8 milyona yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasa s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyalini zay\u0131f okuyor; WTI 84 dolar civar\u0131nda konsolidasyon\/d\u00fczeltme riski ve opsiyonla hedge g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47533\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}