Conference Board\u2019un \u00f6l\u00e7t\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ABD t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni, nisan ay\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilen 93,8 seviyesinden may\u0131sta 93,1\u2019e geriledi. Bu seviye TD\u2019nin 90,5\u2019lik tahmininin \u00fczerinde, piyasa medyan beklentisi olan 92,0\u2019nin ise biraz \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. G\u00f6sterge son d\u00f6nemde UMich (Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici anketi) ve Morning Consult gibi di\u011fer duyarl\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerinden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 da i\u00e7ine alan s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve y\u00fcksek benzin fiyatlar\u0131, endeksi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca riskler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Anketin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131nda \u201ci\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc fark\u0131\u201d (i\u015fi kolay bulanlar\u0131n oran\u0131 eksi i\u015fi zor bulanlar\u0131n oran\u0131) 6,9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, NY Fed anketinde bildirilen daha zay\u0131f \u201ci\u015f bulma beklentileri\u201d ile uyumlu. B\u00fcy\u00fck harcama planlar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n serbest yan\u0131tlar\u0131 daha olumsuz bir tablo \u00e7izdi; ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste fiyatlar, petrol ve benzin daha s\u0131k an\u0131ld\u0131. Sava\u015f, jeopolitik ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ifadeleri de y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu; bu durum, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisine dair kayg\u0131lara i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni \u015fimdilik beklenenden iyi kalsa da raporun ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor. Man\u015fet duygu ile t\u00fcketicinin ger\u00e7ek harcama planlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) y\u00fckselmesini beklemek i\u00e7in genelde elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici \u00fczerindeki enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6zellikle yak\u0131tta belirgin. AAA verilerine g\u00f6re \u00fclke genelinde benzin ortalamas\u0131 galon ba\u015f\u0131na 3,95 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviye, hane b\u00fct\u00e7elerini do\u011frudan etkileyen \u00f6nemli bir \u201cpsikolojik e\u015fik\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ankette b\u00fcy\u00fck tutarl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (otomobil, beyaz e\u015fya gibi) al\u0131m planlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131nda bunun pay\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 s\u00fcren gerilim, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve piyasan\u0131n bu riski tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda sevkiyat\u0131n aksad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler, jeopolitik riski y\u00fckseltti. Bu nedenle \u201ckorunma\u201d (riskten korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren oynakl\u0131k endeksi) son d\u00f6nemdeki yakla\u015f\u0131k 14 seviyesinden bu ay 17\u2019nin \u00fczerine do\u011fru kademeli y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Al\u0131m niyetlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle, zorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim (t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131) sekt\u00f6rlerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 \u015firketleri izleyen ETF\u2019ler (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar) \u2014perakende ve seyahat gibi\u2014 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu isimlerde put opsiyonu almak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanan, belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) harcamalarda yava\u015flamaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 da uyar\u0131 veriyor: i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc fark\u0131 6,9\u2019a geriledi. Bu e\u011filim, JOLTS verilerindeki (ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc hareketlerini g\u00f6steren anket) so\u011fumayla da \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine indi. Daha zay\u0131f bir i\u015f piyasas\u0131, t\u00fcketici \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc destekleyebilir. Petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ileride teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 belirlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) veya enerji odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde call opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finde de\u011fer kazanan, belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu, t\u00fcketici kaynakl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir dengeleme (hedge\/riskten korunma) i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni may\u0131sta 93,1\u2019e geriledi ama beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131: as\u0131l alarm ayr\u0131nt\u0131larda. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc fark\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, harcama niyeti zay\u0131f; benzin 3,95$ ve \u0130ran gerilimi VIX\u2019i yukar\u0131 itiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47526\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}