ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyece\u011fini ve \u0130ran\u2019a ait varl\u0131klar\u0131n (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda dondurulmu\u015f para ve finansal varl\u0131klar) serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Trump ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cy\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum\u201d stokunun (n\u00fckleer yak\u0131t yap\u0131m\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan, safla\u015ft\u0131rma oran\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fckseltilmi\u015f uranyum) Rusya ya da \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan devral\u0131nmas\u0131ndan \u201crahats\u0131z oldu\u011funu\u201d belirterek, gelecekte olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmada n\u00fckleer malzemenin nas\u0131l ele al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na dair bir s\u0131n\u0131r \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 hakk\u0131nda Trump, bo\u011faz\u0131n herkese a\u00e7\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hi\u00e7bir taraf\u0131n kontrol etmeyece\u011fini ve \u201chemen\u201d a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Trump, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak herhangi bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u201ckusursuz\u201d olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de dile getirerek \u0130ran\u2019la bir \u201cmutabakat\u201d (taraflar\u0131n temel ba\u015fl\u0131klarda ortak anlay\u0131\u015fa varmas\u0131) bulundu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve k\u0131sa vadede petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar konusunda sert tutum, piyasada beklenen yeni \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n (piyasaya ek petrol giri\u015fi) devreye girme ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Bu tablo, jeopolitik riskin (uluslararas\u0131 gerilimlerin piyasaya etkisi) fiyatlara yeterince yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 vurgusu burada en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol, yani k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131, bu dar ge\u00e7itten (ge\u00e7i\u015fin kolay kesilebildi\u011fi stratejik nokta) ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Ba\u015fkan bo\u011faz\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylese de, sert s\u00f6ylem sigorta ve navlun (ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k) maliyetine eklenen risk primini (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda talep edilen ek maliyet) y\u00fckseltiyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 bir saat i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyatlar\u0131n daha sert ve s\u0131k hareket etmesi) haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in, b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; bir endeksi\/varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 takip eden ve hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) ve vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) alarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) %18 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu da piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha geni\u015f fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu strateji, fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131rken, durum beklenmedik \u015fekilde sakinle\u015firse riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2019\u2019daki \u0130HA (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) olaylar\u0131 gibi ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ve keskin art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan endi\u015feler azal\u0131nca kademeli gerilemi\u015fti. Ancak ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA; resmi enerji verisi yay\u0131mlayan kurum) son verilerine g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel stoklar (depolardaki mevcut petrol miktar\u0131) o d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu nedenle fiili bir aksama (arz\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131) daha kal\u0131c\u0131 etki yaratabilir. Bu y\u00fczden pozisyonlar\u0131, vadesi 45-60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde dolacak \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la bir \u201cmutabakat\u201d ifadesi, gerilimin aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimalini tamamen d\u0131\u015flam\u0131yor; bu da fiyatlarda sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, teminats\u0131z\/korumas\u0131z pozisyonlardan (hedge olmadan a\u00e7\u0131k risk) ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131p \u201cbull call spread\u201d kullan\u0131yoruz: ayn\u0131 vadede bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan (opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak kurulan yap\u0131. Bu y\u00f6ntem potansiyel kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar, ancak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n aniden gerilemesine kar\u015f\u0131 daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Trump, \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda geri ad\u0131m yok, varl\u0131klar a\u00e7\u0131lmayacak dedi; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u201chemen a\u00e7\u0131k\u201d vurgusu risk primini art\u0131rd\u0131. Brent %3 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, OVX y\u00fckseldi; opsiyonlu stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47524\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}