{"id":47523,"date":"2026-05-28T01:59:51","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T01:59:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/iran-gorusmelerine-iliskin-supheler-ve-fedin-sahin-fiyatlamasiyla-guclenen-dolarin-etkisiyle-altin-4-500-dolarin-altina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-28T01:59:51","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T01:59:51","slug":"iran-gorusmelerine-iliskin-supheler-ve-fedin-sahin-fiyatlamasiyla-guclenen-dolarin-etkisiyle-altin-4-500-dolarin-altina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/iran-gorusmelerine-iliskin-supheler-ve-fedin-sahin-fiyatlamasiyla-guclenen-dolarin-etkisiyle-altin-4-500-dolarin-altina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00fcpheler ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin fiyatlamas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar\u0131n etkisiyle alt\u0131n 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda en \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan para birimi) toparlanmas\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) n\u00f6trle\u015fmesi sonras\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019den fazla geriledi. XAU\/USD (alt\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 cinsinden fiyat\u0131) 4.443 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran uranyumdan (n\u00fckleer yak\u0131tta kullan\u0131lan madde) vazge\u00e7medik\u00e7e yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda (ekonomik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar) gev\u015feme olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan dolara talep artt\u0131 ve bu seviye 30 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey oldu. Beyaz Saray ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran devlet televizyonunun ABD m\u00fczakerecilerine g\u00f6nderildi\u011fi iddia edilen tasla\u011f\u0131n i\u00e7eri\u011fine ili\u015fkin haberini yalanlad\u0131. Bu s\u0131rada ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,06 y\u00fckselerek 99,20\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Di\u011fer tarafta Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) faizi sabit tuttu ancak \u201c\u015fahin\u201d y\u00f6nlendirme yapt\u0131; yani enflasyon riskleri s\u00fcrerse faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakt\u0131. Banka, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi enerji \u015fokuna (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert art\u0131\u015f) ba\u011fl\u0131 risklere dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

ABD faiz piyasalar\u0131nda Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve faiz beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurdu. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re, y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. \u0130stihdam g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k geldi: ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r maa\u015f bordrolar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen istihdam g\u00f6stergesi) d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131, revize edilen 40,75 binden 35,75 bine geriledi. Grafiklerde alt\u0131n 4.401 dolara kadar sark\u0131p s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparland\u0131; destek 4.400 ve ard\u0131ndan 4.098 dolar, diren\u00e7 ise 4.500, 4.550 ve 4.600 dolar seviyelerinde. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat) 4.636 dolarda. Merkez bankas\u0131 talebi ise yap\u0131sal bir destek olmaya devam ediyor; 2022\u2019de 1.136 ton (yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar) al\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Y\u00f6nl\u00fc Riskler<\/h3>\n

4.500 dolar seviyesinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (\u00f6nemli deste\u011fin alt\u0131na inmesi) sonras\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede alt\u0131n i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ba\u015fl\u0131ca olumsuz etken ve bunun s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bozuluyor: RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/momentumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201da (\u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 tepki ihtimali) girmeden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ivmeye i\u015faret ediyor; bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Makro Etkenler ve Strateji<\/h3>\n

Piyasa, yaln\u0131zca ABD\u2019de de\u011fil, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve bunun sonucu merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funa (faizi y\u00fcksek tutma\/yeniden art\u0131rma iste\u011fi) tepki veriyor. Son veriler bunu destekliyor: ABD \u00c7ekirdek PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi g\u00f6sterge) nisan ay\u0131nda %2,9 geldi ve Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak CME FedWatch Tool (vadeli i\u015flemlerden faiz beklentisini hesaplayan ara\u00e7) fiyatlamas\u0131, 2026 sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum dolar\u0131 destekleyip alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demeyen) varl\u0131klar\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran gibi jeopolitik gerilimler \u015fu a\u015famada yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 alt\u0131n yerine ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6neltiyor; bu piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Tarihsel olarak belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011finde alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r; bu e\u011filim \u00f6zellikle 2020\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden bu yana s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz ve 4.500 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 4.400 destek seviyesine yak\u0131n \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, vade olarak 2026 Haziran sonu veya Temmuz tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, riskin ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu (maksimum kayb\u0131n \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131) bir yap\u0131 sunar ve fiyat\u0131n 4.100 civar\u0131ndaki bir sonraki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek b\u00f6lgesine inmesinden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ: alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 18,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ad\u0131na \u201cspread\u201d (iki opsiyonun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131) daha uygun olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread: 4.400 put al\u0131p 4.250 put satmak, giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften ziyade kontroll\u00fc bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekleniyorsa daha temkinlidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: Dolar toparland\u0131, \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri t\u0131kand\u0131, Fed\u2019de \u015fahin fiyatlama g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. XAU\/USD 4.443\u2019te. 4.500 alt\u0131 zay\u0131f; 4.400\/4.098 destek. Strateji: y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f, 4.400 put\/spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47523","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47523\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}