Brent petrol\u00fc, piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ran ile anla\u015fma ihtimalini fiyatlamas\u0131yla yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Ancak ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait f\u00fcze noktalar\u0131na ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na **may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edilen** teknelere y\u00f6nelik son sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Fiyat, bir hafta \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Buna ra\u011fmen K\u00f6rfez\u2019den ihracat\u0131n h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nmesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; **may\u0131n temizli\u011fi**, hasarl\u0131 altyap\u0131 ve **tanker (petrol ta\u015f\u0131yan b\u00fcy\u00fck gemi) bulunabilirli\u011fi**, ihracat\u0131n bir anda ba\u015flamas\u0131ndansa kademeli toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
IEA (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131), petrol piyasas\u0131nda **denge (arz ile talebin birbirine yak\u0131n olmas\u0131)** durumunun y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finin sonuna kadar sa\u011flanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019de EIA (Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi), \u00fcretimin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda mevcut seviyelerde **yatay** kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Sondaj faaliyetlerindeki son art\u0131\u015f\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaratmak i\u00e7in yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunun i\u00e7in **aktif petrol sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131nda (rig count: sahada \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kule say\u0131s\u0131)** \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u00fckseli\u015f gerekti\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir \u201c\u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fma\u201d beklentisiyle Brent\u2019i varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na, yakla\u015f\u0131k 98 dolar seviyesine \u00e7ekti. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, k\u0131sa vadede ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i arz ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok olas\u0131 man\u015fetlere verilen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasa, \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc geciktirecek ciddi lojistik engelleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda may\u0131nlar\u0131n temizlenmesi, hasarl\u0131 altyap\u0131n\u0131n onar\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yeterli say\u0131da tanker kiralanmas\u0131 aylar al\u0131r. Denizcilik istihbarat\u0131 raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n denizde depolad\u0131\u011f\u0131 80 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde stok bulunsa da, anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 ihracat i\u00e7in gereken tankerlerin d\u00f6rtte birinden az\u0131 ayarlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu nedenle arz\u0131n piyasaya bir anda de\u011fil, kademeli bi\u00e7imde d\u00f6nmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum daha \u00f6nce de ya\u015fand\u0131; 2015\u2019teki n\u00fckleer anla\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran ihracat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varil art\u0131\u015fla toparlanmas\u0131 neredeyse bir y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Mevcut tabloda ise \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f hasar var; bu da tam kapasiteye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcresini uzatabilir. Bu nedenle olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n arz etkisinin haftalar i\u00e7inde de\u011fil, 2026 sonu ya da 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda hissedilmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda \u00fcretim tepkisi, fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Baker Hughes verilerine g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de petrol sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131 652; y\u00fcksek fiyatlara ra\u011fmen son alt\u0131 ayda art\u0131\u015f %5\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00dcretimin belirgin bi\u00e7imde artmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu say\u0131n\u0131n 750\u2019nin epey \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekir; ancak \u00fcreticilerin \u201csermaye disiplini\u201d (harcamalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131p nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 koruma) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 bunu engelliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, IEA ve EIA\u2019n\u0131n son tahminleriyle de uyumlu: Her iki kurum da piyasan\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonundan \u00f6nce dengeye d\u00f6nmesini beklemiyor. K\u00fcresel \u00fcretimin yaz boyunca mevcut seviyelere yak\u0131n seyredece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu da piyasada arz\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funu (talebe g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131) g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisiyle 100 dolar alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; ancak ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de may\u0131n\/lojistik engelleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc frenliyor. IEA dengeyi gecikmeli g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, ABD \u00fcretimi yatay.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47522\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}