ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son 5 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil ihalesi, %4,182 faiz (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n bu tahvili al\u0131rken kabul etti\u011fi y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri oran\u0131) ile tamamland\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki ihaledeki %3,955 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum, bu vadede Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetinin (devletin bor\u00e7 al\u0131rken \u00f6dedi\u011fi faiz) \u00f6nceki sat\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Art\u0131\u015f, iki ihale aras\u0131nda faizi 0,227 puan yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Piyasa oyuncular\u0131, bu yeniden fiyatlaman\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n ve faizlerin yeni beklentilere g\u00f6re g\u00fcncellenmesi) orta vadeli faizlere ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde Hazine\u2019nin finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131na nas\u0131l yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek.<\/p>\n
5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ihalede faizin y\u00fckselmesi, piyasan\u0131n devlet borcunu ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek getiri istedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Nitekim son t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi verilerinde, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tahvil piyasas\u0131ndan gelen bu sinyal, paran\u0131n maliyetinin (kredi ve bor\u00e7lanma faizleri) daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu sonu\u00e7, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemine y\u00f6nelik faiz indirimi beklentilerini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin ihtimal hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) bu de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor: \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, bu oran bir ay \u00f6nceye g\u00f6re belirgin bi\u00e7imde geriledi.<\/p>\n
Faiz pozisyonlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, getirilerin y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u201cDaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re getirisi artabilecek ara\u00e7lar izleniyor: \u00d6rne\u011fin Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) veya faiz swap\u0131 kullanmak. Faiz swap\u0131 (iki taraf\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi anla\u015fma) \u00fczerinden sabit faiz almak gibi yap\u0131lar bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ayr\u0131ca 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik opsiyon stratejileri (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti, \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler (gelecekteki k\u00e2rlara g\u00f6re fiyatlanan teknoloji gibi alanlar) i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131. Nasdaq 100 endeksi i\u00e7in koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: endeks d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan, zarar s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan opsiyon) stratejileri g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; 2022\u2019de faizlerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemde endekste yakla\u015f\u0131k %33\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Uzun vadeli nakit ak\u0131mlar\u0131na dayanan varl\u0131klar\u0131n (de\u011feri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gelecekteki kazan\u00e7 beklentilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olan varl\u0131klar) yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131, borsa performans\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesinde faiz %4,182\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti 0,227 puan artt\u0131. Piyasa enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor, Fed indirim beklentisi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47519","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47519"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47519\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}