AUD\/USD, Avustralya\u2019dan gelen daha zay\u0131f enflasyon verisinin (t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n) AUD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131yla geriledi. ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ise USD\u2019yi (ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131) desteklemeye devam etti. Parite 0,7136 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,44 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Avustralya\u2019da T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,6\u2019dan %4,2\u2019ye yava\u015flayarak %4,4\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. RBA\u2019n\u0131n (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u201ck\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama\u201d T\u00dcFE\u2019si (u\u00e7 fiyat hareketlerini d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakarak daha kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ise %3,3\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve tahminlerle uyumlu geldi. Zay\u0131flayan istihdam sinyalleri de izlenirken, piyasalar RBA\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar dolara destek verdi. \u0130ran Devlet TV\u2019si bir \u201cMOU\u201d (Mutabakat Zapt\u0131: taraflar\u0131n niyetini ve temel \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi yaz\u0131l\u0131 hale getiren, genelde ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 metin) i\u00e7in ilk, resmi olmayan bir \u00e7er\u00e7evenin haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; ancak ABD bu haberi yalanlayarak ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fma tasla\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u201ctamamen uydurma\u201d diye niteledi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 99,00\u2019un alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 99,20 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde AUD\/USD, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Bollinger bantlar\u0131n\u0131n orta \u00e7izgisi olan basit hareketli ortalama; fiyat\u0131n ortalama e\u011filimini g\u00f6sterir) 0,7187 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda, ancak 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (daha uzun vadeli trend g\u00f6stergesi) 0,7038 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) orta 40\u2019lara do\u011fru inerken, MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) hafif negatif b\u00f6lgede. Diren\u00e7 0,7187 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,7274\u2019te; destek ise 0,7100 ve 0,7038 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Avustralya enflasyonundaki bu yumu\u015fama \u00f6nemli bir i\u015faret. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2\u2019ye gerilemesi, RBA\u2019n\u0131n uzun bir s\u00fcre faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da \u015fu a\u015famada Avustralya dolar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisi de (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %0,2\u2019ye yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme ayn\u0131 anda yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda RBA genelde uzun bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemine giriyor. Piyasa da 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamaz hale gelmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta ABD dolar\u0131, \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki belirsizlikle destek buluyor. Ayr\u0131ca son ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n temel g\u00f6stergesi) verisi Nisan\u2019da 265 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizi sabit tutma duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirdi. ABD\u2019deki bu g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Avustralya taraf\u0131ndaki yumu\u015famayla belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu zeminde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 0,7050 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (opsiyonda al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 fiyat) yak\u0131n AUD\/USD \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (parite d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) almak, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama deste\u011fine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefleyerek cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu y\u00f6ntem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon sa\u011flar ve azami zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Giri\u015f veya pozisyon art\u0131rma i\u00e7in 0,7100 civar\u0131ndaki alt Bollinger band\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n g\u00f6rece \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d b\u00f6lgesini i\u015faret eden bant) izlenebilir. Bu deste\u011fin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumunu teyit eder. Daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131mda \u201cbear put spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki put opsiyonu ile kurulan, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren fakat olas\u0131 k\u00e2r\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f stratejisi) da uygulanabilir; b\u00f6ylece ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyeti azalt\u0131l\u0131rken daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gerileme hedeflenir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131f Avustralya T\u00dcFE\u2019si AUD\u2019yi sarst\u0131, AUD\/USD 0,7136\u2019ya %0,44 geriledi. \u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi d\u00fc\u015ferken, 0,7100-0,7038 destek; 0,7187-0,7274 diren\u00e7. Put stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47517\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}