TD Securities, \u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) \u0130ngiltere GSYH\u2019sindeki mevsimsel (y\u0131l\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nemlerinde d\u00fczenli tekrarlayan) hareketleri yanl\u0131\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ebilece\u011fini savunuyor. Buna g\u00f6re y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki (H1) b\u00fcy\u00fcme oldu\u011fundan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ikinci yar\u0131daki (H2) ekonomik faaliyet ise oldu\u011fundan zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; ancak y\u0131ll\u0131k toplam b\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Notta, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin 2025\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda (2025H1) G10\u2019un (10 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para birimi\/ekonomisi grubu) geri kalan\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek (2026Q1) verilerinde de \u015fimdilik \u00f6nde oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bununla birlikte, hem \u00e7eyreklik hem ayl\u0131k verilerde tekrar eden bir profil oldu\u011fu; \u00fcretimin ilk yar\u0131da s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p ikinci yar\u0131da yatay seyretti\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor. ONS ise y\u00f6ntemlerini savunan bir analiz yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
TD, San Francisco Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n San Francisco \u015fubesi) \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na dayanan \u201c\u00e7ifte mevsimsel d\u00fczeltme\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131yor. Bu y\u00f6ntem, zaten mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (mevsimsel etkileri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) seriyi bir kez daha mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131rarak, tekrarlayan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm sapmalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. TD\u2019ye g\u00f6re 2023\u2019ten bu yana resm\u00ee mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH serisi, \u00e7ifte d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcme k\u0131yasla daha dalgal\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca 1. ve 2. \u00e7eyrekte (Q1 ve Q2) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yanl\u0131l\u0131k (b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin oldu\u011fundan y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi), 3. ve 4. \u00e7eyrekte (Q3 ve Q4) ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yanl\u0131l\u0131k (b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi) tespit ediliyor. Buna g\u00f6re a\u00e7\u0131klanan %0,6 \u00e7\/\u00e7 (q\/q: bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re) Q1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 0,25 puana (ppt: y\u00fczde puan) kadar abart\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olabilir; bu da Q3 ve Q4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerinin her birinin 0,2 puana kadar eksik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere GSYH verilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen son g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Resm\u00ee veriler, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde oldu\u011fundan y\u00fcksek g\u00f6steriyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan %0,6\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik ivmeyi tam yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sorguluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u015f\u00fcpheyi enflasyon verileri de destekliyor. Nisan 2026\u2019da enflasyon %2,1 ile piyasa beklentilerinin (konsens\u00fcs: analistlerin ortak tahmini) biraz alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu da ekonominin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na (talebin arz\u0131 zorlay\u0131p fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckseltmedi\u011fine) i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00fccretler h\u00e2l\u00e2 %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde. Ancak GSYH\u2019nin abart\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi ihtimali, BoE\u2019ye faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 (rate hikes) ertelemek i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e sa\u011flar. Piyasan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte (Q3) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 fazla iddial\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda faiz oran\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerini (derivatif: de\u011feri faiz gibi bir g\u00f6stergeye ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme), \u00f6zellikle 2026 sonuna y\u00f6nelik SONIA vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. SONIA, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de gecelik risksiz faizi temsil eden bir g\u00f6sterge. Mevcut getiri e\u011frisi (curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerde faiz seviyelerini g\u00f6steren yap\u0131), g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama muhtemelen hatal\u0131 Q1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisini b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle fiyatlam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum, piyasadan daha temkinli bir BoE senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin bu yeniden de\u011ferlendirme, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Sterlinin Nisan\u2019da ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,28 seviyesine y\u00fckseli\u015finde, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hik\u00e2yesi de etkiliydi. 1,25 band\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilme ihtimalinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, vadesi Temmuz sonuna yak\u0131n (late July expiries) GBP\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha ileriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ayn\u0131 mevsimsel sapma y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, ABD GSYH\u2019sinde 2015 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen benzer veri sorunlar\u0131, d\u00fczeltme geldi\u011finde piyasalarda \u00f6nemli yeniden fiyatlamalara neden olmu\u015ftu. Bu nedenle yaz\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde, beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelebilecek Q3 ve Q4 verilerine g\u00f6re pozisyon f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 arayaca\u011f\u0131z; bu da y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru BoE\u2019nin daha \u015fahin (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcme aldat\u0131yor mu? TD\u2019ye g\u00f6re ONS mevsimselli\u011fi yanl\u0131\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor: H1 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, H2 zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Q1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilir; BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 erteleyebilir, sterlin bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47514\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}